Pick the results of the 22 league games left before the split. We play out everything you leave blank and show how many points it leaves Aberdeen on, against the target you pick.
Your target
Now: 10th on 11 points from 11 gamesYour projection: 37 points after 33 games
7 NovAberdeenvHibernian≈12 ptsafter game 12
Aberdeen win chance: model 34% · bookmakers 38% · history 53%(9/17)
21 NovKilmarnockvAberdeen≈14 ptsafter game 13
Aberdeen win chance: model 37% · history 56%(9/16)
24 NovRangersvAberdeen≈14 ptsafter game 14
Aberdeen win chance: model 11% · history 15%(3/20)
28 NovAberdeenvDundee FC≈16 ptsafter game 15
Aberdeen win chance: model 47% · history 77%(10/13)
2 DecHeartsvAberdeen≈17 ptsafter game 16
Aberdeen win chance: model 19% · history 17%(3/18)
5 DecAberdeenvDundee United≈18 ptsafter game 17
Aberdeen win chance: model 42% · history 56%(5/9)
12 DecFalkirkvAberdeen≈19 ptsafter game 18
Aberdeen win chance: model 31% · history 0%(0/1)
20 DecAberdeenvCeltic≈20 ptsafter game 19
Aberdeen win chance: model 15% · history 10%(2/21)
26 DecSt. JohnstonevAberdeen≈21 ptsafter game 20
Aberdeen win chance: model 36% · history 56%(10/18)
30 DecAberdeenvMotherwell≈22 ptsafter game 21
Aberdeen win chance: model 35% · history 53%(10/19)
3 JanSt. MirrenvAberdeen≈24 ptsafter game 22
Aberdeen win chance: model 32% · history 15%(2/13)
9 JanAberdeenvHearts≈25 ptsafter game 23
Aberdeen win chance: model 29% · history 76%(13/17)
23 JanDundee FCvAberdeen≈26 ptsafter game 24
Aberdeen win chance: model 34% · history 64%(9/14)
30 JanAberdeenvRangers≈27 ptsafter game 25
Aberdeen win chance: model 20% · history 18%(3/17)
3 FebAberdeenvFalkirk≈28 ptsafter game 26
Aberdeen win chance: model 44% · history 0%(0/3)
13 FebHibernianvAberdeen≈29 ptsafter game 27
Aberdeen win chance: model 23% · history 28%(5/18)
20 FebDundee UnitedvAberdeen≈30 ptsafter game 28
Aberdeen win chance: model 29% · history 25%(3/12)
27 FebAberdeenvSt. Johnstone≈32 ptsafter game 29
Aberdeen win chance: model 50% · history 28%(5/18)
13 MarAberdeenvSt. Mirren≈34 ptsafter game 30
Aberdeen win chance: model 45% · history 50%(8/16)
20 MarCelticvAberdeen≈34 ptsafter game 31
Aberdeen win chance: model 8% · history 5%(1/20)
3 AprMotherwellvAberdeen≈35 ptsafter game 32
Aberdeen win chance: model 23% · history 53%(9/17)
10 AprAberdeenvKilmarnock≈37 ptsafter game 33
Aberdeen win chance: model 51% · history 72%(13/18)
Percentages are the model's chance of each result. The number on the right of each Aberdeen game is their points total after it: red when every game up to it is picked, ≈ when it includes the model's expected points for games left blank. History = Aberdeen's league record in this fixture since 2015-16. Bookmakers = average odds across the market for the coming round, with the bookmakers' margin taken out (football-data.co.uk). Tested on every Premiership game since 2021, the model gets about 90% of the way to the bookmakers' accuracy. 22 Aberdeen and 129 league matches are left before the split; after round 33 the league splits in two and fixtures are set then.
Aberdeen after 33 games
37
points (30–45 likely range)
44
usually gets 6th
7 short
at the split
18%
chance of the top six
Top six (44 points after 33 games): sixth after 33 games has averaged 44 (40–50) since 2010-11. Aberdeen's projected 37 leaves them 7 short.
No results picked: this is the model's view with every match simulated.
How the chance works: it counts every one of the 4,000 simulated seasons where Aberdeen finish in the top six, so it allows for the 6th-place total being higher or lower than 44 that year (it averages 43 in the simulations). It depends on every other club's results too, so treat it as a guide rather than a forecast.
Aberdeen's points, game by game
played + your picksincludes expected pointstop-six line (average 44)Aberdeen last season (2025-26)
Team
Now
@33
Likely range
Celtic
28
75
69–82
Rangers
24
69
62–76
Hearts
20
56
48–64
Dundee United
16
44
36–51
Falkirk
18
43
36–51
Motherwell
12
42
35–50
Dundee FC
17
41
34–48
Hibernian
8
40
33–48
St. Mirren
14
38
31–46
Aberdeen
11
37
30–45
St. Johnstone
14
35
28–42
Kilmarnock
9
29
23–37
Every club's projected points after 33 games, highest first. This is not a predicted finishing order: look how much the likely ranges overlap. The range is the middle 80% of 4,000 simulated seasons.
What it takes
Aberdeen have 11 points from 11 games (1.00 a game). What each target needs from the games left:
Top six
sixth after 33 games has averaged 44 (40–50) since 2010-11
33 pts from 22: 11 wins
1.50 a game, against 1.00 so far
60 points
the benchmark season, all 38 games
49 pts from 27: 17 wins (or 16 wins and 1 draw)
1.81 a game, against 1.00 so far
50 points
all 38 games
39 pts from 27: 13 wins
1.44 a game, against 1.00 so far
Clear of the play-off
11th has averaged 35 after 38 (32–41)
25 pts from 27: 9 wins (or 8 wins and 1 draw)
0.93 a game, against 1.00 so far
Clear of relegation
12th has averaged 28 after 38 (21–34)
18 pts from 27: 6 wins
0.67 a game, against 1.00 so far
The 38-game targets include the five games after the split, whose opponents are not known yet. Relegation lines leave out 2013-14 (Hearts' points deduction is not in the results). 12th goes down; 11th goes into the play-off.
The manager table
Robinson is 6th of 6 on points per game. Pick Aberdeen results to move him.
#
Manager
P
W-D-L
Win %
PPG
1
Derek McInnes
215
113-43-59
53%
1.78
2
Barry Robson
36
15-7-14
42%
1.44
3
Jimmy Thelin
58
22-12-24
38%
1.34
4
Stephen Glass
31
10-7-14
32%
1.19
5
Jim Goodwin
35
11-7-17
31%
1.14
6
Stephen Robinson · now
20
6-4-10
30%
1.10
Caretakers, not ranked: Paul Sheerin 0-0-1 · Peter Leven 7-5-8 · Neil Warnock 0-2-4. League games only, from 2015-16, which is where the hub's history starts, so McInnes's first two and a half seasons are missing. Only the results you pick count; games you leave blank are not added.
What the top six has needed
Sixth place after 33 games has finished on 40–50 points, an average of 44.0, across 15 seasons since 2010-11. Aberdeen's 37 would have matched or beaten sixth place in 0 of 15.
2025-26
46
2024-25
41
2023-24
41
2022-23
44
2021-22
40
2020-21
40
2018-19
50
2017-18
46
2016-17
41
2015-16
43
2014-15
44
2013-14
48
2012-13
44
2011-12
48
2010-11
44
Grey bar: points of the club that finished sixth after 33 games. Faint red tick: where Aberdeen were that season. Solid red line: Aberdeen's projection here. 2019-20 is missing (season cut short). Order is points, then goal difference, then goals scored.
After 33 games
37 pts
likely 30–45
Target: Top six
7 short
at the split · 18% chance
How it works: every club is rated on the quality of chances it creates and concedes (FotMob xG). Then all 129 league games left before the split, for every club, are played out 4,000 times (apart from the results you pick) to see where Aberdeen's points total is likely to land. If Aberdeen simply kept their current 1.00 points a game they would reach 33; the model has them on 37, because their chances have been better than their results.
FotMob results, xG, fixtures and kick-off times · history is Aberdeen's league record since 2015-16 · 2026-11-06 · round 12 played · home edge is an assumption · points ties are settled at random · League table
v
Hibernian≈12 ptsafter game 12
v
v
Dundee FC≈16 ptsafter game 15
v
Dundee United≈18 ptsafter game 17
v
Celtic≈20 ptsafter game 19
v
Motherwell≈22 ptsafter game 21
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