Where will Aberdeen finish?

Pick the results of the 22 league games left before the split. We play out everything you leave blank and show how many points it leaves Aberdeen on, against the target you pick.

Your target

Now: 10th on 11 points from 11 gamesYour projection: 37 points after 33 games

7 NovAberdeen

Hibernian≈12 ptsafter game 12

Aberdeen win chance: model 34% · bookmakers 38% · history 53% (9/17)

Why they differ: The model (34%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Hibernian have created 1.51 xG a game and allowed 1.56, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Hibernian slight favourites even at Pittodrie. History (53%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Hibernian since 2015-16: nine wins in 17, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. The bookmakers (38%) sit between the two, closer to the model. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

21 NovKilmarnock

Aberdeen≈14 ptsafter game 13

Aberdeen win chance: model 37% · history 56% (9/16)

Why they differ: The model (37%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Kilmarnock have created 1.36 xG a game and allowed 2.11, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it rates it close. History (56%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against Kilmarnock since 2015-16: nine wins in 16, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

24 NovRangers

Aberdeen≈14 ptsafter game 14

Aberdeen win chance: model 11% · history 15% (3/20)

28 NovAberdeen

Dundee FC≈16 ptsafter game 15

Aberdeen win chance: model 47% · history 77% (10/13)

Why they differ: The model (47%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Dundee FC have created 1.48 xG a game and allowed 1.72, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Aberdeen favourites. History (77%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Dundee FC since 2015-16: 10 wins in 13, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

2 DecHearts

Aberdeen≈17 ptsafter game 16

Aberdeen win chance: model 19% · history 17% (3/18)

5 DecAberdeen

Dundee United≈18 ptsafter game 17

Aberdeen win chance: model 42% · history 56% (5/9)

Why they differ: The model (42%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Dundee United have created 1.53 xG a game and allowed 1.49, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Aberdeen favourites. History (56%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Dundee United since 2015-16: five wins in 9, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

12 DecFalkirk

Aberdeen≈19 ptsafter game 18

Aberdeen win chance: model 31% · history 0% (0/1)

Why they differ: The model (31%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Falkirk have created 1.14 xG a game and allowed 1.80, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it makes Falkirk slight favourites. History (0%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against Falkirk since 2015-16: no wins in 1, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

20 DecAberdeen

Celtic≈20 ptsafter game 19

Aberdeen win chance: model 15% · history 10% (2/21)

26 DecSt. Johnstone

Aberdeen≈21 ptsafter game 20

Aberdeen win chance: model 36% · history 56% (10/18)

Why they differ: The model (36%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: St. Johnstone have created 1.24 xG a game and allowed 1.95, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it rates it close. History (56%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against St. Johnstone since 2015-16: 10 wins in 18, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

30 DecAberdeen

Motherwell≈22 ptsafter game 21

Aberdeen win chance: model 35% · history 53% (10/19)

Why they differ: The model (35%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Motherwell have created 1.63 xG a game and allowed 1.61, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Motherwell slight favourites even at Pittodrie. History (53%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Motherwell since 2015-16: 10 wins in 19, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

3 JanSt. Mirren

Aberdeen≈24 ptsafter game 22

Aberdeen win chance: model 32% · history 15% (2/13)

Why they differ: The model (32%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: St. Mirren have created 1.43 xG a game and allowed 1.95, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it makes St. Mirren slight favourites. History (15%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against St. Mirren since 2015-16: two wins in 13, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

9 JanAberdeen

Hearts≈25 ptsafter game 23

Aberdeen win chance: model 29% · history 76% (13/17)

Why they differ: The model (29%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Hearts have created 1.90 xG a game and allowed 1.59, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Hearts slight favourites even at Pittodrie. History (76%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Hearts since 2015-16: 13 wins in 17, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

23 JanDundee FC

Aberdeen≈26 ptsafter game 24

Aberdeen win chance: model 34% · history 64% (9/14)

Why they differ: The model (34%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Dundee FC have created 1.48 xG a game and allowed 1.72, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it makes Dundee FC slight favourites. History (64%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against Dundee FC since 2015-16: nine wins in 14, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

30 JanAberdeen

Rangers≈27 ptsafter game 25

Aberdeen win chance: model 20% · history 18% (3/17)

3 FebAberdeen

Falkirk≈28 ptsafter game 26

Aberdeen win chance: model 44% · history 0% (0/3)

Why they differ: The model (44%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Falkirk have created 1.14 xG a game and allowed 1.80, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Aberdeen favourites. History (0%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Falkirk since 2015-16: no wins in 3, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

13 FebHibernian

Aberdeen≈29 ptsafter game 27

Aberdeen win chance: model 23% · history 28% (5/18)

20 FebDundee United

Aberdeen≈30 ptsafter game 28

Aberdeen win chance: model 29% · history 25% (3/12)

27 FebAberdeen

St. Johnstone≈32 ptsafter game 29

Aberdeen win chance: model 50% · history 28% (5/18)

Why they differ: The model (50%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: St. Johnstone have created 1.24 xG a game and allowed 1.95, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Aberdeen favourites. History (28%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against St. Johnstone since 2015-16: five wins in 18, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

13 MarAberdeen

St. Mirren≈34 ptsafter game 30

Aberdeen win chance: model 45% · history 50% (8/16)

20 MarCeltic

Aberdeen≈34 ptsafter game 31

Aberdeen win chance: model 8% · history 5% (1/20)

3 AprMotherwell

Aberdeen≈35 ptsafter game 32

Aberdeen win chance: model 23% · history 53% (9/17)

Why they differ: The model (23%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Motherwell have created 1.63 xG a game and allowed 1.61, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, so it makes Motherwell slight favourites. History (53%) is Aberdeen’s league record away against Motherwell since 2015-16: nine wins in 17, with different squads and managers. Against every club away it’s 37%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

10 AprAberdeen

Kilmarnock≈37 ptsafter game 33

Aberdeen win chance: model 51% · history 72% (13/18)

Why they differ: The model (51%) rates this season’s chances, blended with last season’s: Kilmarnock have created 1.36 xG a game and allowed 2.11, Aberdeen 1.30 and 1.56, with home advantage added, so it makes Aberdeen favourites. History (72%) is Aberdeen’s league record at home against Kilmarnock since 2015-16: 13 wins in 18, with different squads and managers. Against every club at home it’s 50%. They measure different things, so a gap isn’t a mistake in any of them.

Percentages are the model's chance of each result. The number on the right of each Aberdeen game is their points total after it: red when every game up to it is picked, ≈ when it includes the model's expected points for games left blank. History = Aberdeen's league record in this fixture since 2015-16. Bookmakers = average odds across the market for the coming round, with the bookmakers' margin taken out (football-data.co.uk). Tested on every Premiership game since 2021, the model gets about 90% of the way to the bookmakers' accuracy. 22 Aberdeen and 129 league matches are left before the split; after round 33 the league splits in two and fixtures are set then.

Aberdeen after 33 games

points (30–45 likely range)

About 43 after all 38 (34–51). A rough guide: the five games after the split are against clubs in the same half, which the model treats as average opponents, so the real fixtures could move it a few points either way.

usually gets 6th

7 short

at the split

18%

chance of the top six

Top six (44 points after 33 games): sixth after 33 games has averaged 44 (40–50) since 2010-11. Aberdeen's projected 37 leaves them 7 short.

No results picked: this is the model's view with every match simulated.

How the chance works: it counts every one of the 4,000 simulated seasons where Aberdeen finish in the top six, so it allows for the 6th-place total being higher or lower than 44 that year (it averages 43 in the simulations). It depends on every other club's results too, so treat it as a guide rather than a forecast.

Aberdeen's points, game by game

played + your picksincludes expected pointstop-six line (average 44)Aberdeen last season (2025-26)

Team	Now	@33	Likely range
Celtic	28	75	69–82
Rangers	24	69	62–76
Hearts	20	56	48–64
Dundee United	16	44	36–51
Falkirk	18	43	36–51
Motherwell	12	42	35–50
Dundee FC	17	41	34–48
Hibernian	8	40	33–48
St. Mirren	14	38	31–46
Aberdeen	11	37	30–45
St. Johnstone	14	35	28–42
Kilmarnock	9	29	23–37

Every club's projected points after 33 games, highest first. This is not a predicted finishing order: look how much the likely ranges overlap. The range is the middle 80% of 4,000 simulated seasons.

What it takes

Aberdeen have 11 points from 11 games (1.00 a game). What each target needs from the games left:

Top six sixth after 33 games has averaged 44 (40–50) since 2010-11	33 pts from 22: 11 wins 1.50 a game, against 1.00 so far
60 points the benchmark season, all 38 games	49 pts from 27: 17 wins (or 16 wins and 1 draw) 1.81 a game, against 1.00 so far
50 points all 38 games	39 pts from 27: 13 wins 1.44 a game, against 1.00 so far
Clear of the play-off 11th has averaged 35 after 38 (32–41)	25 pts from 27: 9 wins (or 8 wins and 1 draw) 0.93 a game, against 1.00 so far
Clear of relegation 12th has averaged 28 after 38 (21–34)	18 pts from 27: 6 wins 0.67 a game, against 1.00 so far

The 38-game targets include the five games after the split, whose opponents are not known yet. Relegation lines leave out 2013-14 (Hearts' points deduction is not in the results). 12th goes down; 11th goes into the play-off.

The manager table

Robinson is 6th of 6 on points per game. Pick Aberdeen results to move him.

#	Manager	P	W-D-L	Win %	PPG
1	Derek McInnes	215	113-43-59	53%	1.78
2	Barry Robson	36	15-7-14	42%	1.44
3	Jimmy Thelin	58	22-12-24	38%	1.34
4	Stephen Glass	31	10-7-14	32%	1.19
5	Jim Goodwin	35	11-7-17	31%	1.14
6	Stephen Robinson · now	20	6-4-10	30%	1.10

Caretakers, not ranked: Paul Sheerin 0-0-1 · Peter Leven 7-5-8 · Neil Warnock 0-2-4. League games only, from 2015-16, which is where the hub's history starts, so McInnes's first two and a half seasons are missing. Only the results you pick count; games you leave blank are not added.

What the top six has needed

Sixth place after 33 games has finished on 40–50 points, an average of 44.0, across 15 seasons since 2010-11. Aberdeen's 37 would have matched or beaten sixth place in 0 of 15.

2025-26

2024-25

2023-24

2022-23

2021-22

2020-21

2018-19

2017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

Grey bar: points of the club that finished sixth after 33 games. Faint red tick: where Aberdeen were that season. Solid red line: Aberdeen's projection here. 2019-20 is missing (season cut short). Order is points, then goal difference, then goals scored.

After 33 games

37 pts

likely 30–45 · ≈43 after 38

Target: Top six

7 short

at the split · 18% chance

How it works: every club is rated on the quality of chances it creates and concedes (FotMob xG). Then all 129 league games left before the split, for every club, are played out 4,000 times (apart from the results you pick) to see where Aberdeen's points total is likely to land. If Aberdeen simply kept their current 1.00 points a game they would reach 33; the model has them on 37, because their chances have been better than their results.

FotMob results, xG, fixtures and kick-off times · history is Aberdeen's league record since 2015-16 · 2026-11-06 · round 12 played · home edge is an assumption · points ties are settled at random · League table

How the predictor works, and how it compares with the bookmakers →

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