Squad strategy

Is Aberdeen building a squad, or starting again?
The club as a long-term project rather than a run of managers and transfer windows: how much of the team carries over from one season to the next, and whether the players who arrive go on to establish themselves. League matches only, 2021–22 to now.
The question

In the 4 completed seasons from 2022–23 to 2025–26, between 27% and 60% of Aberdeen's league minutes went to players who had played for the club the year before.

The low was 2022–23 (27.4%), the high 2023–24 (60.2%). 2026–27 stands at 38.9% after 9 of 38 league matches; over the same first 9 matches the earlier seasons were 33% (2022–23), 62% (2023–24), 60% (2024–25), 72% (2025–26). A high share is not automatically good, and a low one not automatically bad: it says how much of the team was new, not whether it was better.

Who played the minutes

Played the year beforeNew to the league squad

Manager in charge, by league match. Hover a segment for dates. Short interim spells are unlabelled but listed in the table below.

Results beside continuity

league matches · dashed = part-played season
2021–22
2 managers
Returning share57%Points per game1.08xG diff per game+0.13
2022–23
2 managers
Returning share27%Points per game1.50xG diff per game-0.40
2023–24
4 managers
Returning share60%Points per game1.26xG diff per game-0.14
2024–25
1 manager
Returning share53%Points per game1.39xG diff per game-0.42
2025–26
3 managers
Returning share59%Points per game1.05xG diff per game-0.37
2026–27
9 of 38 matches
Returning share39%Points per game1.22xG diff per game-0.27

Points per game is out of 3 (bar to 2.5). The xG difference is FotMob xG for minus against per match; left of the line (red) is a negative difference, scale ±1.0. Five full seasons and one part-played season cannot show that continuity causes better results: they also differ in which players stayed, the opposition and luck. This is the context for the question, not an answer to it.

By manager spell

SeasonManager fromMatchesPoints / gameGoal diff / gamexG diff / game
2021–22Stephen Glass · 1 Aug 2021261.15-0.08+0.25
Jim Goodwin · 19 Feb 2022120.92-0.25-0.11
2022–23Jim Goodwin · 31 Jul 2022231.26-0.35-0.36
Barry Robson · 1 Feb 2023151.87+0.27-0.47
2023–24Barry Robson · 5 Aug 2023211.14-0.43-0.21
Peter Leven · 3 Feb 20241*1.000.00-0.82
Neil Warnock · 6 Feb 20246*0.33-1.00-0.54
Peter Leven · 13 Mar 2024102.10+1.10+0.32
2024–25Jimmy Thelin · 5 Aug 2024381.39-0.34-0.42
2025–26Jimmy Thelin · 4 Aug 2025201.25-0.20-0.19
Peter Leven · 6 Jan 20269*0.44-0.89-1.14
Stephen Robinson · 14 Mar 20269*1.22-0.33-0.01
2026–27Stephen Robinson · 1 Aug 20269*1.220.00-0.27

* Fewer than ten league matches: a caretaker or short spell. A manager's results also reflect the squad he inherited and the fixtures he faced.

2026–27 against 2025–26

Part-played season. 9 of 38 league matches. Every figure below covers only those matches, and a departure means “not in a 2026–27 matchday squad yet”.
Returning share
38.9%
8 returning players, 15 new
First 9 matches
38.9%
the like-for-like figure
Players used
23
30 in a matchday squad
Last year's core
6 of 8
still in a squad; 2 started at least half again; 21% of minutes

2025–26 core: who started at least 19 of 38 league matches

PlayerStarts 2025–26In a 2026–27 squadStarts 2026–27Minutes 2026–27
Dimitar Mitov32Yes00
Jack Milne32Yes2248
Mats Knoester26Yes5483
Kevin Nisbet26Yes9719
Nicky Devlin24Yes00
Stuart Armstrong24Yes3458
Alexander Jensen21Gone––
Graeme Shinnie19Gone––

Retention here means the player, not what he did: a core player can be retained and no longer play, or leave and have his role covered by others.

What the 2025–26 goals and assists looked like by who is still around

Goals: 23 of 39 came from players not in a 2026–27 squad (59%)
Assists: 10 of 20 came from players not in a 2026–27 squad (50%)

Goals include penalties and exclude opposition own goals. This shows where the production sat, not whether it was replaced: a collective replacement is invisible here. Defensive production is not shown because no audited measure exists yet.

Arrived (17)

In a 2026–27 matchday squad, not in 2025–26's.

PlayerMinStarts
Marius Müller8109
Chris Cadden7929
Nesta Guinness-Walker7659
Lewis Mayo5607
Connor Ronan4466
Dan Happe3824
Lewis Smith3272
Tony Yogane2844
Findlay Marshall2653
Ayoub Mouloua2552

Plus 7 more with fewer minutes.

Left (26)

In a 2025–26 matchday squad, not in 2026–27's so far.

PlayerMin last yrG + A
Alexander Jensen1,8620 + 0
Graeme Shinnie1,8000 + 2
Topi Keskinen1,5433 + 3
Jesper Karlsson1,2905 + 0
Adil Aouchiche1,2803 + 0
Liam Morrison1,1021 + 0
Marko Lazetic1,0544 + 1
Dante Polvara1,0451 + 0
Dennis Geiger9121 + 1
Lyall Cameron8770 + 1

Plus 16 more with fewer minutes.

Season by season

SeasonMatchesReturning minFirst 9Returned / usedCore keptGoals from leaversManagers (league matches)
2021–223856.6% *59.9%16 / 31––Glass 26 · Goodwin 12
2022–233827.4%33.2%10 / 304 / 1053%Goodwin 23 · Robson 15
2023–243860.2%61.8%13 / 256 / 1016%Robson 21 · Leven 1 · Warnock 6 · Leven 10
2024–253852.6%59.5%18 / 327 / 1015%Thelin 38
2025–263859.3%72.4%18 / 389 / 1231%Thelin 20 · Leven 9 · Robinson 9
2026–279 of 3838.9%38.9%8 / 236 / 859%Robinson 9

* Indicative: the prior season (2020–21) is Sofascore season totals, not match-level data. “First 9” is the same share over only each season's first nine league matches. “Goals from leavers” is the share of the previous season's goals scored by players who are not in this season's matchday squads.

How it is calculated

  • Aberdeen Scottish Premiership matches only. Cups and European ties are not in the store.
  • League minutes from Sofascore (complete for all 199 matches). Unused substitutes have zero minutes.
  • League minutes played this season by players who also played at least one Aberdeen league minute the previous season, divided by all league minutes this season. Loans, January arrivals and brief appearances are treated the same way: any minute counts, nobody is weighted.
  • The previous season's established core: players who started at least half (19 of 38) of its league matches. 'In squad' means he appeared in at least one matchday squad (starter or unused substitute) the next season.
  • Of the previous season's established core (started at least half its league matches), how many are again in the first team: started at least half of this season's league matches so far.
  • Arrival = in a matchday squad this season but not the previous one. Departure = the reverse. A player who never made a matchday squad is invisible to this measure.
  • Goals and assists (Sofascore). Defensive production is not shown: no single audited measure exists yet.
  • Points per game, goal difference per game and xG difference per game (FotMob xG for and against, per match covered) for the league matches of each season and each manager spell. Part-played seasons and short spells show their match count. These sit beside continuity; they do not show that continuity caused them, and a few seasons cannot separate squad continuity from the quality of the players kept, the opposition or luck.
  • The same comparison over only the first 9 league matches of each season, so a part-played season is read against equal-length slices of earlier ones.
199 matches · data: canonical store (lineups, Sofascore minutes, FotMob xG) + Sportmonks transfers and dates of birth + Wikipedia transfer tables + curated signings · data through 17 Oct 2026 · league only; arrivals are reconciled from three sources, see Coverage in the Recruitment review · how the numbers work · glossary