St Mirren Opposition Report

1. 01Summary

   • Recent form: The Buddies have lost the last four, scoring one and conceding 11. All 10 of their points came in the first four games.
   • Underlying numbers: xGA has risen from 1.14 to 2.79 a game. They have had a tricky run of fixtures: Celtic, Rangers, Dundee Utd and Hearts.
   • How they play: A 4-2-3-1 that builds through Ryan Carr and sits in a mid-block without the ball.
   • The weak spot: Losing the ball in their own half. Far more of those losses now end in a shot.

   First four (Falkirk, St J'stone, Motherwell, Kilmarnock)Last four (Celtic, Rangers, Dundee Utd, Hearts)

   Points (of 12 available)

   10

   0

   Goals scored a game

   1.75

   0.25

   Goals conceded a game

   0.75

   2.75

   xG a game

   1.73

   1.28

   xG against a game

   1.14

   2.79

   Own-half losses followed by a shot within 15s

   3.4%

   7.6%

   Goalkeeper's open-play passes that are long

   56%

   55%

   Average league position of opponents

   9.2 →3.0 (lower = stronger)

2. 02Results and underlying form

   • The turn: It started against Celtic, not Dundee Utd. They conceded 3.19 xG at home to Celtic and 2.49 at Ibrox, despite narrow defeats.
   • The heavy defeats: Worse on the scoreboard than on the pitch. Both opponents scored early, and 1.58 of Hearts' 3.90 xG came from penalties.

   ■ St Mirren xG   ■ xG against

3. 03Shape and selection

   • Shape: 4-2-3-1 in seven of eight games. They went 5-4-1 at Ibrox.
   • Ever-presents: Jacob Chapman, Alex Gogic and Carr have started every game.
   • Midfield pair: Carr is the first receiver from the centre-backs and the link to the front four. Paul Nsio is the runner and ball-winner: 2.5 box touches per 90 to Carr's 0.3, and the most ball wins of the regulars.
   • Team news: Nikolas Agrafiotis is ruled out for Pittodrie, leaving McLeish with a decision at centre-forward. Eseosa Sule has started in the league previously and played 60 minutes in St Mirren B's 5-0 win over Edinburgh City on Tuesday. Jake Young and Killian Phillips are alternatives, although neither has established himself as the first-choice striker. Team news: St Mirren FC
   • Striker options: Sule (307 mins, 0.86 xG) and Young (207 mins, 1.52 xG) haven't scored. Phillips, top scorer with three, led the line at Hearts.

   4-2-3-1 · last XI (Hearts) · not a prediction

   Their most recent starting XI, not a prediction. Starting line-ups from WhoScored; team news (injuries, suspensions, the manager's press conference) isn't in the data.

4. 04In possession

   • Build-up: Short, through the centre-backs and Carr. He gets 84 of their passes into midfield to Nsio's 33.
   • Keeper: Chapman is heavily involved (36 passes a game). Goal kicks go short, but over half his open-play passes go long.
   • Width: Lopsided. The left-back and left winger both hug the line; on the right it's mostly Calvin Ramsay, with the right winger coming inside.

   Where the centre-backs pass

   Keeper or other centre-back

   33%

   Holding pair

   25%

   Front four

   22%

   Full-backs

   21%

   Passes into the holding pair

   Carr

   84

   Nsio

   33

   Completed open-play passes, 4-2-3-1 spells

   Who gives them width

   Left flank

   Left-back

   73

   Left midfield

   77

   Right flank

   Right-back

   53

   Right midfield

   28

   Touches out wide in the final third, 4-2-3-1 spells. Their right midfielder rarely gets there.

   Final-third entries by channel (their left on the left)

   Against the rest of the league

   Passes a game436 · 7th of 12

   Pass completion80.9% · 5th of 12

   Long balls (share of passes)14.2% · 6th of 12

   Passes into the final third a game50 · 12th of 12

   Crosses a game13.6 · 12th of 12

   St Mirren in red, the other Premiership sides in grey; the line is the league average. Ranked highest first. Sportmonks player stats, all league games this season.

   WhoScored events, open play (corners, free kicks, throw-ins and goal kicks left out).

5. 05Out of possession

   • Press: A mid-block, not a high press. Only the striker regularly wins the ball in the opposition half.
   • Where teams get through: Round the outside. 78% of opponents' attacks reach their final third out wide, though more have come through the middle lately.
   • Counter-press: Still works. They win back 28% of opposition-half losses within five seconds, up from 20%.

   Red: the last two games.

   How opponents reach their final third

   First four

   Wide 83%

   17%

   Last four

   Wide 74%

   27%

   Against Aberdeen

   Wide 78%

   22%

   Opponents’ open-play moves from their own half into the final third. Red: arriving centrally, in front of or inside the box.

   Average height of each role’s ball wins (metres from their own goal), 4-2-3-1 spells only, 568 minutes. Where they win the ball, not where they stand.

   Against the rest of the league

   Ball recoveries a game52 · 1st of 12

   Tackles + interceptions a game30.5 · 1st of 12

   St Mirren in red, the other Premiership sides in grey; the line is the league average. Ranked highest first. Sportmonks player stats, all league games this season.

   WhoScored events. PPDA as on the rest of the site: opponent passes in their own 60% of the pitch per defensive action there.

6. 06Losing the ball

   • Pressure: Teams aren't pressing them harder. High regains against them are down from 10.8 to 9.2 a game.
   • But: It has started costing goals. Hearts scored three within 15 seconds of a St Mirren own-half loss, and Dundee Utd two. Those are the only five goals they've conceded that way all season.
   • The cost: 7.6% of own-half losses now lead to a shot within 15 seconds, up from 3.4%. They're not losing it more often, they're just being punished more.
   • Errors: Nine, seven of them in the last four, and every one led to a shot. Henry Fieldson has three, Chapman two.

   Red: five or more in a game.

   WhoScored events. Loss = failed open-play pass, dispossession, failed touch or take-on, or a recorded error; own half = before halfway.

7. 07How they create and score

   • Threat: 1.50 xG a game, more than Aberdeen's 1.10. Fast breaks bring 24% of it.
   • Drought: No open-play goal since Kilmarnock on 2 Sep, four games ago.

   St Mirren’s shots

   All (107)On target (28)Off target (79)Goals (8)Saved (20)Blocked (34)

   All situations (107)Open play (88)Free kick (6)Corner (10)Penalty (2)

   8 goals: 5 open play, 1 free kick, 2 pen

   Goal

   Saved

   Blocked

   Post

   Off target

   107 shots

   xG created

   49%

   24%

   8%

   13%

   xG conceded

   46%

   14%

   16%

   20%

   ■ Open play■ Fast breaks■ Corners■ Set pieces■ Penalties

   FotMob shots. The map shows 107 of their 108 shots; the other one was taken from inside their own half.

8. 08How they concede

   • xGA: 1.97 a game. All three clean sheets came in the first four.
   • Set pieces: A weakness. Three goals conceded from corners and two from other set pieces.
   • Penalties: Four conceded. Hearts scored both of theirs.

   Shots against St Mirren

   All (123)On target (41)Off target (82)Goals (14)Saved (27)Blocked (37)

   All situations (123)Open play (82)Free kick (9)Corner (27)Penalty (4)

   14 goals: 7 open play, 2 free kick, 3 corner, 2 pen

   Goal

   Saved

   Blocked

   Post

   Off target

   123 shots

9. 09Players who shape how they play

   • Ryan Carr (holding midfield, 22). New this summer, on a free from Ipswich Town's U21s. The hub of the build-up. He averages 55 open-play passes per 90 minutes (85% completed), more than any regular except Fraser Taylor, and 4.5 passes into the final third per 90, the most of anyone with 300 or more minutes. He also plays the most long crossfield passes of any outfield player, 3.2 per 90.
   • Paul Nsio (holding midfield, 20). New this summer, on loan from Rangers. Carr's partner does a different job. His average touch comes 51 m from his own goal to Carr's 45 m, he has 2.5 touches in the opposition box per 90 to Carr's 0.3, and he wins the ball 9.6 times per 90, the most of the regulars. He receives far fewer of the centre-backs' passes, so in this data he looks like the runner and ball-winner of the pair rather than the first receiver.
   • Alex Gogic (centre-back, 32). At the club since 2022, from Hibernian. Has started every game at centre-back, usually on the right, and is where most moves begin: 48 open-play passes per 90, 88% completed. His passes to Carr (56) and to Fieldson (54) are among the side's most-used links.
   • Henry Fieldson (centre-back, 21). New this summer, from Queen's Park. The left-sided centre-back, and the main partner for Declan John: John to Fieldson (59) and Fieldson to John (52) are two of the most-used passes in the side. After Carr, he is the player who most often moves the ball from the back line straight on to the attacking players. He also has the most recorded errors (three); errors are rare, but they fit the pattern of losses close to goal being punished.
   • Declan John (left-back, 31). Joined in November 2024 after leaving Bolton. The more attacking full-back, with 19 final-third touches and 2.3 box touches per 90 minutes, and eight chances created. His link with Ismeal Kabia is the main route down the left.
   • Calvin Ramsay (right-back, 23). New this season, on loan from Liverpool. The right-back is more measured. He supplies most of the width on that side, but his average touch is 47 m from his own goal to John's 53 m, and only 2% of the right-back's ball wins have come in the opposition half.
   • Ismeal Kabia (left wing, 20). New this season, on loan from Arsenal. The main creator, with 10 chances in six starts, mostly from the left of the attacking midfield line. He has 27 final-third touches and 5.9 box touches per 90, the most of anyone with 300 or more minutes, and most of his final-third touches come out wide on the left.
   • Jacob Chapman (goalkeeper, 25). New this summer, from Huddersfield Town. Has started every game and is central to the build-up, with around 36 open-play passes a game. He has two of the side's nine recorded errors, which matters for a team whose own-half losses have become so costly.
   • Killian Phillips (No 10, 24). Signed from Crystal Palace in 2025 after a loan spell. Top scorer with three goals, used mostly as the No 10 and once up front. Where he plays on Saturday depends on the centre-forward choice covered under Shape and selection.

   John → Fieldson

   59

   Fieldson → Gogic

   58

   Gogic → Carr

   56

   Gogic → Fieldson

   54

   Fieldson → John

   52

   Carr → Gogic

   49

   Fieldson → Carr

   47

   Gogic → Chapman

   44

   Carr → Taylor

   44

   Carr → Nsio

   43

   Most-used passing links, all league games: a completed open-play pass and the teammate’s next touch

10. 10The last four games

    • Celtic (H), 1-2: 3.19 xGA, seven shots straight after own-half losses.
    • Rangers (A), 0-1: Back five, held out until the 90th minute.
    • Dundee Utd (H), 0-3: Behind after six minutes, no shots on target.
    • Hearts (A), 0-5: 10 shots straight after own-half losses, plus two penalties.

    St Mirren’s passing v Hearts

    Starting XI, first 47 minutes (until the first substitution). Dots: average touch position (nudged apart where they overlap). Lines: completed open-play passes between the pair, three or more; red for the most-used. Attacking upwards.

11. 11Meetings with Aberdeen

    • League meetings since 2015-16: 9 Aberdeen wins, 7 draws, 12 defeats.
    • 12 May 2026: Aberdeen 0-2 St Mirren (defeat)
    • 4 Apr 2026: St Mirren 2-0 Aberdeen (defeat)
    • 3 Dec 2025: Aberdeen 3-3 St Mirren (draw)
    • 18 Oct 2025: St Mirren 0-1 Aberdeen (win)
    • 3 May 2025: St Mirren 1-0 Aberdeen (defeat)

Data: FotMob (results, xG, shots, player stats), WhoScored (pressing, turnovers, line-ups). Aberdeen figures: this season, same sources. Built 17 October 2026. 8-game samples move a lot on one result. Aberdeen comparisons use each side’s league games this season. League ranks use Sportmonks player stats. How the numbers work