Falkirk Opposition Report

Falkirk’s 2026-27 league season so far: 10 games. Event data (WhoScored) for the last five.

1. 01Summary

   The two-minute read. Every point is covered in detail further down the page.

   • Form: 10 points from the last five league games after two from the first five. Falkirk are seventh, a point above Aberdeen.
   • The improvement is real: Their xG went from 0.79 for and 2.10 against a game in the first five to 1.68 and 1.55 in the last five, with the same 46% average possession. They are creating more and conceding less, not just finishing better.
   • How they play: A settled 4-2-3-1. Brad Spencer is the deep passer who starts most attacks, and Jacob Murrell is the outlet who finishes them: five of their eight goals that weren't own goals.
   • Away from home: 0.87 xG for and 1.92 against a game in five away games, but they won 2-1 at Hibernian with 30% of the ball.
   • The weak spot: Corners into the penalty-spot area. Eight of the 11 opposition corners delivered there led to a shot.
   • Late goals: Five goals conceded from the 76th minute on, three of them from set pieces and three in the 90th minute. They cost Falkirk six points.

2. 02What McGlynn has said

   Published interviews, quoted with the outlet and date. This is the manager's account, kept apart from the event data.

   • On adapting: After the 2-1 win at Hibernian: "We managed to have a week to work with players, change things, and you have to adapt." He added that "Hibs had a lot of the ball" (PA, via STV, 17 October 2026).
   • On Hibernian, before the game: Having watched Hibernian's 1-0 defeat at Dundee United, he said: "It was a different formation. It might look 4-2-3-1 on paper but it became almost a 3-1-6. It was very interesting to look over and to try to put it across to our players." He added: "We've only got one game to look at" (Edinburgh Evening News, before the 17 October game).
   • On late goals, in the same interview: After the late defeat by Dundee, Falkirk practised defending a late set piece at the end of every training session that week: "We've set up a free-kick and we've put the team into that situation. The ball is coming in and we need to defend it." He also wants players "to go and head the ball and clear it properly rather than what we've done at times that has cost us points" (Edinburgh Evening News).
   • On the Dundee game: He cited Sportscene's expected goals, 1.9 for Falkirk and 1.4 for Dundee: "We just have to turn these margins in our favour." FotMob also has Falkirk ahead, 2.31 to 1.90 including the penalty (Edinburgh Evening News).
   • After Hibernian: "We had a few sore ones recently, with losing late goals, and we were potentially in that situation today" (PA, via STV, 17 October 2026).
   • On a new squad: After the 3-0 against Kilmarnock, the points were "great for like a new team that we've put together" (BBC Sport, 24 October 2026).
   • On the conditions against Kilmarnock: "We played the conditions. Maybe we played the conditions maybe a little bit better than Kilmarnock," in wind and hail (BBC Sport, 24 October 2026).
   • On the midfield change: "Finley Barbrook was excellent in a different position. Big Deniss (Melniks) came into midfield and did so well" (PA, 24 October 2026).
   • On Murrell: "Jacob is very confident now. Like everything else, you come from America and you've got to adjust." His header against Kilmarnock was "a carbon copy of the goal he scored at Tannadice from a corner" (PA, 24 October 2026).

3. 03Results and underlying form

   FotMob xG for every league game, oldest first. The last five are the games with WhoScored event data.

   • Both ends improved: 0.79 xG for and 2.10 against a game in the first five, 1.68 and 1.55 in the last five. They were out-created in every one of the first five and ahead on xG in four of the last five.
   • Not a finishing streak: Leaving out own goals, they scored seven from 8.4 xG in the last five. Their goals against are the kinder number: five conceded from 7.7 xG.
   • The own goals: Four of their 12 league goals are own goals, two of them against Kilmarnock. On xG that game was close (2.00 to 1.82), so the 3-0 scoreline flatters them more than the run as a whole does.
   • Different ways to win: 2-1 against Hearts with 41% of the ball, 3-0 against Kilmarnock with 49% and 2-1 at Hibernian with 30%.
   • Aberdeen for comparison: 1.32 xG for and 1.59 against a game over their 10 league games.

   ■ Falkirk xG   ■ xG against

4. 04Shape and selection

   • Settled: A 4-2-3-1 from kick-off in all five games, with eight players starting every one: Bain, Strain, Henderson, Spencer, Barbrook, Ross, Eames and Murrell.
   • The one change, and why: Against Kilmarnock, Deniss Melniks started in midfield and Barbrook moved up to No. 10, replacing Ben Krauhaus, who had started the other four. The Falkirk Herald's preview reported that Krauhaus, on loan from Brentford, would miss the game. So the change may have been forced rather than planned.
   • What changed that day: Barbrook's average touch was much higher (x 60, against 47 to 50 in his other four games) and he had 22 touches in the final third, his most. Falkirk didn't progress more through the middle: 4 of their 25 passes into the final third ended centrally, within the range of the other four games.
   • In-game changes: The only change of shape in the five games was a switch to 4-1-4-1 for the last few minutes against Hearts.
   • Team news: Krauhaus was reported as missing Kilmarnock, so check whether he's back. Injuries and the line-up need checking before kick-off.

5. 05In possession

   • Where the xG comes from: Open play 55%, set pieces 29%, a penalty 9% and fast breaks 7% (FotMob, last five games).
   • Through the middle, not from wide: 31 of their 37 open-play chance-creating passes were ground passes, 16 of them from the centre. Six were crosses and none were through balls.
   • Creators: Ethan Ross, on the right of the three behind Murrell, has 8 open-play chance-creating passes. Spencer and Liam Henderson have 4 each.
   • Bain's long kicking rarely keeps the ball: He plays 53% of his open-play passes long (64% at Hibernian). Falkirk had the next touch after only 29 of his 102 long passes and goal kicks past halfway.

   FotMob xG: 8.43 in total. Red: set pieces.

   Successful open-play passes WhoScored flags as a key pass or assist.

6. 06Case study: Hibernian's 3-1-6

   McGlynn's explanation of the 2-1 win at Easter Road on 17 October, checked against the events. Both quotes are checked against the article text. Event data shows where the ball went, not where players stood.

   • What McGlynn said: Before the game, from the one Hibernian match he had to study: "It might look 4-2-3-1 on paper but it became almost a 3-1-6" (Edinburgh Evening News). Afterwards he said Hibernian's back three "floats out of that into a back four", but with so much of the ball "it was like a 3-1-6 with Felix Passlack so high on the right and Thibault Klidje on the other side." And: "You go high-risk with so many bodies forward and then on the flip side if you win the ball back, as we did in the first goal, there's space down the sides of the centre-backs" (Edinburgh Evening News, 17 October).
   • The first goal fits his account: Ryan Strain won the ball just inside Falkirk's half after a Hibernian miscontrol. His first pass went about 30 metres forward to the edge of the box on Falkirk's inside right, and Murrell scored four seconds after the regain. McGlynn himself called it "a great ball by Ryan Strain to put Jacob in" (PA, via STV, 17 October).
   • The second goal didn't come from it: Strain's ball into the right corner led to Klidje losing it with a back-heel deep in his own corner, and Ethan Ross crossed for Murrell. It was a mistake under pressure deep in Hibernian's half, not a counter-attack into space.
   • One moment, not a pattern: Falkirk got the ball into the final third within 10 seconds after only 6 of their 41 regains (15%), level with Hearts for the lowest of their five games. The goal was the only shot that came from a regain in their own half. FotMob logs one fast-break shot all game: the goal, at 0.05 xG.
   • What it tells us: McGlynn described Hibernian's shape before and after the game, and Falkirk scored from the one clear transition they got. Across the season, though, they aren't a side built on the break: 0.7 fast-break shots a game, against 1.8 for Celtic and St Mirren (FotMob, the sides we hold shot data for).
   • The Aberdeen question: Aberdeen concede 1.2 fast-break shots a game this season, within the range of the other sides we hold (Celtic 0.7 to Falkirk 1.7). So the data doesn't show Aberdeen leaving unusual space on the break. The lesson from Easter Road is narrower: when Aberdeen commit players forward and lose the ball, Falkirk's first forward pass is the one to stop.

   12:54 Murrell 1-0: four seconds from regain to goal

   36:37 Murrell 2-0: an error in Hibernian's corner

   WhoScored events at Easter Road, Falkirk attacking left to right (top = their left). Grey: Hibernian's last passes and the ball they lost. Red: Falkirk's regain, passes and shot; dashed means the pass didn't find a team-mate. The events show where the ball went, not where any player stood.

7. 07Brad Spencer, the deep passer

   Open-play WhoScored events, last five games, per 90 on his 470 WhoScored minutes (stoppage time included). There is no tracking data, so nothing here describes his movement off the ball or how closely he was marked.

   • The finding: Spencer is Falkirk's main deep distributor. He makes 44.6 open-play passes per 90, the most of their midfielders, with 5.4 progressive passes, 5.4 passes into the final third and 4.6 switches of play.
   • A different job from Barbrook: 54% of Spencer's passes go forward and 21% are long, so he completes 73%. Barbrook is the safe recycler: 85% completion, 35% of his passes backward and 9% long.
   • Against the league: Among the 45 Premiership midfielders with 450 or more minutes this season, Spencer ranks second for long balls (9.7 per 90, median 2.4) and third for passes in the final third (10.9, median 4.8), but 42nd for pass accuracy (74%). Barbrook ranks 10th for accuracy (86%). This is Sportmonks, all 10 rounds, on Sportmonks' own definitions, so it isn't comparable with the WhoScored figures above.
   • Two outlets on opposite flanks: Ryan Strain, the right-back, receives more of his passes than anyone (34 completed) and is his main switch target. His passes into the final third go mostly left, to Owen Eames (9 of 28).
   • The supply line: 57% of the passes he receives come from Bain or the back four. That fell to 3 at Hibernian and 7 against Kilmarnock, against 17 to 31 in the other three games.
   • Why it fell: Hibernian (30% Falkirk possession) had most of the ball, and the Kilmarnock game was played in a gale. In both, Bain went long more often than in any other game. Hibernian and Kilmarnock also pressed Falkirk harder than St Johnstone or Dundee did, but Hearts pressed about as hard and Spencer still got 17 passes from the back line. So pressing alone doesn't explain it.
   • Low possession makes him more direct: In the two games with under 45% of the ball he made 33.4 passes per 90 against 52.0, but just as many passes into the final third (5.3 against 5.4).

   Red: the two games where that supply nearly dried up. His total receptions: 28, 35, 54, 12, 19.

   Open-play passes, last five games.

   Spencer v Dundee (1-2, 55% possession)

   PASSES: 65 OF 82 COMPLETED · 16 TO STRAIN, 4 TO EAMES

   RECEIVED: 54 · 31 FROM GK OR BACK FOUR

   Spencer at Hibernian (2-1, 30% possession)

   PASSES: 14 OF 26 COMPLETED · 4 TO STRAIN, 3 TO EAMES

   RECEIVED: 12 · 3 FROM GK OR BACK FOUR

   Open-play WhoScored events. Falkirk attack left to right; the top of the pitch is their left. Passes: red to Ryan Strain or Owen Eames, white to anyone else, dotted when they failed. Receptions: red when the pass came from Bain or the back four. Dundee was his busiest game, Hibernian his quietest.

8. 08Jacob Murrell, the outlet

   WhoScored events, last five games. Receptions are where his team-mates' passes ended. They show where he got the ball, not the runs that got him there.

   • The finding: Murrell is both Falkirk's finisher and the target for their longer passes. He has 4 goals, 19 shots and 3.35 xG in 388 FotMob minutes, a quarter of the team's 72 shots and 40% of their xG.
   • He gets the ball in the channels: 53 of his 61 receptions came in the opposition half, and 35 of those were in the wide channels rather than the middle. 22 came from long passes.
   • In the air: He won 9 of his 27 aerial duels. From Bain's long kicks he contested eight in the air and won four. He is a target, but not a reliable one.
   • Goals four ways: A penalty (Dundee), a fast break and an open-play finish (both at Hibernian) and a header from a corner (Kilmarnock).
   • Without the ball: 11 tackles, interceptions, recoveries and blocked passes in five games, seven of them in the opposition half, and nine fouls committed.

   61 receptions: where a team-mate's completed open-play pass to him ended. Red: the wide channels (outer thirds of the pitch) in the opposition half.

9. 09Out of possession

   PPDA: opposition passes in their own 60% of the pitch for each Falkirk tackle, interception, challenge or foul there. Lower means more pressing.

   • A middling press: Median PPDA 15.8, against Aberdeen's 13.4 this season. Their most active game was against Kilmarnock (10.9) and their least active at Hibernian (18.4).
   • After losing the ball high: 6% of their losses in the opposition half were won back within five seconds. Dundee United, the only other side we've measured this way, managed 4%.
   • Goals conceded in the last five: Five. Two from open play (James Wilson for Hearts, Owen Elding for Hibernian), two from free kicks or set plays (Enes Alić at St Johnstone, Ashley Hay for Dundee) and one from a corner (Owen Bevan for Dundee).

   Red: the one game with a clearly more active press (Kilmarnock).

10. 10Playing out and losing the ball

    • A lot of losses, little punishment: They lose the ball 64 times a game in their own half, 37 of them in their own third. Only 4% of those losses led to an opposition shot within 15 seconds. That's in line with Dundee United's 5% on the same measure.
    • Which games: St Johnstone and Dundee got the most out of it, with four shots each.
    • One error: Bain's 89th-minute mistake against Kilmarnock is the only recorded error in five games, and it led to a shot.

    Red: four or more in a game.

11. 11Late in games

    FotMob shots and goals, all 10 league games. The 76th minute onwards, stoppage time included.

    • The finding: Falkirk's late goals have come from set pieces and finishing, not from a late collapse in chances against. They conceded five goals from the 76th minute on, from 3.2 xG against in that spell.
    • What it cost: A 90th-minute corner at Dundee United and a 90th-minute free kick at St Johnstone turned wins into draws. Lawrence Shankland's 79th-minute goal for Rangers and Ashley Hay's stoppage-time winner for Dundee turned draws into defeats. That's six points.
    • McGlynn sees the same problem: He said Falkirk practised defending a late free kick at the end of every training session in the week after the Dundee defeat (Edinburgh Evening News). The data points the same way: the late goals came from set pieces and finishing.
    • No late surge in chances: In the last five games they conceded 0.27 xG a game after the 75th minute, the same rate as the rest of the match (0.26 for each 15 minutes).
    • When they lead: 1.73 xG and 15.7 shots against per 90 when ahead, against 1.60 and 13.5 when level. At Hibernian, where they led from the 13th minute, Hibernian managed 1.29 xG over the whole game.
    • Substitutions: Against Kilmarnock, Falkirk made no change until the 83rd minute, the latest first change of their five games. In the other four the first change came between half-time and the 69th minute.

12. 12Set pieces and corners

    WhoScored events, last five games. "Led to a shot" means the side taking the corner had a shot within 15 seconds. Swing is inferred from the taker's stronger foot.

    • The finding: The danger zone is the penalty-spot area. Eight of the 11 opposition corners delivered there led to a shot, against 7 of 19 delivered anywhere else.
    • Half of all corners led to a shot, at both ends: 12 of Falkirk's 26 and 15 of the 30 against them. That's normal on this measure: Dundee United's own corners came out at 19 of 39. So the overall rate isn't the story, but the zone is.
    • Not mostly lost headers: Of the 15 shots after corners against Falkirk, seven came after Falkirk won the first contact and the ball dropped loose, five from the attacker's first contact or a flick-on, and three from short or worked routines. Henderson won first contact seven times, more than anyone.
    • Dundee's game: Dundee had 10 corners and eight led to shots. Owen Bevan's goal came from a pass after the corner, not from the delivery itself.
    • Their own corners: Strain took 24 of 26: 16 outswingers from the right and 8 inswingers from the left. Ten went to the near post (six shots) and 12 to the penalty-spot area (five shots).
    • Their targets: Murrell won first contact four times and had five shots from corners, scoring against Kilmarnock. Spencer had four shots from corners, three of them at St Johnstone.

    Last five league games, WhoScored events. Grey: corners delivered to that zone. Red: those followed by a shot from the side taking the corner within 15 seconds.

    How each shot came about. Red: Falkirk won the first contact and the shot came from the loose ball. Other: the attacker's own first contact or a flick-on, or a short or worked routine.

    Shots within 15 seconds of a Falkirk corner, last five games.

    EVERY CORNER, FOR AND AGAINST

    Falkirk's corners: how they swing and where they land

    Inswingers6 delivered, 3 with a shot

    Outswingers17 delivered, 8 with a shot

    CORNERS TAKEN (STRONGER FOOT)

    Strain (R)

    24

    Krauhaus (L)

    2

    CORNERS, AND THOSE WITH A SHOT WITHIN 15 SECONDS

    Hearts

    1 of 3

    St Johnstone

    5 of 8

    Dundee FC

    1 of 3

    Hibernian

    1 of 3

    Kilmarnock

    4 of 9

    WhoScored events, last five league games. Lines run from the flag to where the delivery ended; red where the side taking the corner had a shot within 15 seconds (a ring marks a goal). It records the shot, not who won the first header. Swing is inferred from the taker's stronger foot and the side. Attacking upwards.

    Corners against Falkirk

    Inswingers16 delivered, 8 with a shot

    Outswingers4 delivered, 1 with a shot

    CORNERS TAKEN (STRONGER FOOT)

    Jones (R)

    7

    Kiltie (?)

    6

    Hamilton (L)

    3

    Miller (L)

    2

    Altena (R)

    2

    McAlear (R)

    2

    Boyle (R)

    2

    Matondo (R)

    2

    Paton (R)

    1

    Elding (L)

    1

    Cadden (L)

    1

    Lowery (?)

    1

    CORNERS, AND THOSE WITH A SHOT WITHIN 15 SECONDS

    Hearts

    1 of 4

    St Johnstone

    0 of 3

    Dundee FC

    8 of 10

    Hibernian

    2 of 6

    Kilmarnock

    4 of 7

    WhoScored events, last five league games. Lines run from the flag to where the delivery ended; red where the side taking the corner had a shot within 15 seconds (a ring marks a goal). It records the shot, not who won the first header. Swing is inferred from the taker's stronger foot and the side. Attacking upwards. Takers here are Falkirk's opponents.

13. 13What it means for Aberdeen

    Our reading of the numbers above, not something the data shows directly.

    • Make them defend corners: The penalty-spot area is where opponents have got shots, and seven of the 15 shots came from loose balls after Falkirk's first clearance. Deliveries there, with players waiting for the second ball, look the best route.
    • Cut the supply to Spencer: When fewer passes from Bain and the back four reached Spencer, Falkirk went long more. Only 29 of Bain's 102 long kicks past halfway were kept, so if Aberdeen screen Spencer, the second ball around Murrell becomes the contest.
    • Watch the channels and the switch: Murrell gets the ball wide in the opposition half, and Spencer's switches go to Strain on Falkirk's right, which is Aberdeen's left. Aberdeen's wide defenders will have to deal with both.
    • The chance at Pittodrie: Falkirk have conceded 1.92 xG a game away from home, and Aberdeen average 1.77 xG at home. If those numbers hold, Aberdeen should create enough to win. Whether they take the chances is a separate question (see below).
    • Sample: Five games with event data, two of them away, and 10 in the season. Every figure here can move a lot with one result.

14. 14Reasons to be cheerful

    From Aberdeen's side. What each number could mean on Wednesday.

    • Falkirk travel badly: 1.92 xG against a game away from home, out-shot 16.4 to 10.6. Aberdeen's home attack (1.77 xG a game) should get chances.
    • The penalty-spot zone: Eight of the 11 opposition corners there led to a shot. Every corner Aberdeen win is a real chance, not just a reset.
    • Late goals: Falkirk have conceded five from the 76th minute on, three of them from set pieces. If Aberdeen are still in the game late, the last quarter of an hour has been Falkirk's weak spell.
    • Aberdeen are improving: 1.58 xG for and 1.27 against a game over the last five league games, against 1.10 and 1.91 in the first five.
    • Bain's long ball rarely sticks: If Aberdeen cut off Spencer, Falkirk kept only 29 of Bain's 102 long kicks past halfway. Opponents have usually come away with the ball.

15. 15Reasons to be fearful

    • They are a better side than in August: The xG improvement at both ends is real, and it came with the same amount of the ball. This isn't mainly luck.
    • Murrell can score any way: Four goals in the last five, four different ways. One chance can be enough, as at Hibernian, where he scored twice from 0.14 xG.
    • Strain's corners against Aberdeen's set-piece record: 12 of Falkirk's 26 corners led to a shot. Aberdeen have conceded five of their 13 league goals from set pieces, penalties included.
    • Aberdeen's finishing at home: Five goals from 8.85 xG in five home league games. Creating chances against Falkirk won't be enough on its own.
    • They can win without the ball: 2-1 at Hibernian with 30% possession. If Aberdeen dominate the ball and don't score, Falkirk have shown at Hibernian that they can take an early lead and hold it.
    • The switch to Strain: Nine of Spencer's 24 switches went to Strain, on Aberdeen's left. If Aberdeen's left side gets drawn narrow, that is Falkirk's way out.

Data: FotMob (xG, shots, goals and possession, all 10 league games) and WhoScored match-centre events (the last five league games: Hearts, St Johnstone, Dundee, Hibernian, Kilmarnock). PPDA is the hub's zoned definition. Turnover, reception, switch, chance-creating pass and corner definitions are our own and are given where used. Per-90 figures from WhoScored events use WhoScored minutes, stoppage time included. Quotes: PA (via STV, 17 October 2026, and 24 October 2026) BBC Sport (24 October 2026) and the Edinburgh Evening News (before and after the 17 October game). Team news: the Falkirk Herald; check the line-up before kick-off. Opponent quality is not controlled for, and five games is a small sample. Fast-break shots are FotMob's situation tag; other sides' figures cover the seven to nine games in our files. League ranks for midfielders are Sportmonks player match stats (all 10 rounds, 450+ minutes), kept separate from the WhoScored counts. Comparisons with Dundee United use the same definitions from our Dundee United report (24 October 2026).