Celtic (A) 0–3
Motherwell (A) 4–0 →The verdict
Event data: Opta
A draw that matched the balance of chances.
10–11 shots · 1–1 big chances · 1.08–1.11 NPxG
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SPFL YouTubeSummary
How the match was decided
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
1.08 – 1.11
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.34
0.11 – 0.10
xG per shot
10 – 11
shots
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.65 – 2.33
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 2.60
50% – 50%
field tilt
53 – 73
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.11 xGA
chances conceded
0.48 better than AFC baseline (1.59)
18 (base 26)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.10
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-1-3-2 and stayed in it for the whole match. Kilmarnock stayed in 4-1-3-2 throughout.
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.08 | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Touches in box | 21 | 23.8 | 18 |
| Possession % | 55 | 47.0 | 45 |
The second half only looks like a revival next to the first. At 0.96 xG it was an ordinary Aberdeen half (0.97 usual); the first, at 0.12 against 0.37, was the outlier.
Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half this season.
How this is measured
FotMob period stats. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 10 games in 2026-27. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Kilmarnock.
Lineups
Shots
Where the chances came from
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.08Kilmarnock 1.11GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
34%
30%
35%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Aberdeen shots
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Kilmarnock shots
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
10shots · 3 on target · 0.86 xG
By situation
70%
10%
20%
Open play770%
Corner110%
Free kick / throw220%
By body part
40%
40%
20%
Right foot440%
Left foot440%
Head220%
How this is measured
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 10Kilmarnock 11
🟨🟨↔↔🟨🟨↔↔↔🟨
↔🟨↔↔🟨🟨🟨
0'HTFT
Drag across the chart to pick any window.
How this is measured
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | SPFL average 116 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 14.4 | about normal · 68 of 195 lower |
| about normal · 68 of 195 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 6 | 8.3 | 8 | 9.9 | below usual · 54 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 54 of 195 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing
How the ball moved
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
50.1%
31.3%
18.6%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.1% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
36.7%avg 60.7%
GK Total Passes
30avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
90.9%avg 86.1%
Progression
Progressive Passes
63avg 50
Directness
58.8%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 478 | 396.2 | 393 | above usual · 154 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 154 of 195 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 80.5 | 75.5 | 72.3 | above usual · 171 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 171 of 195 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 31 | 30.8 | 25.4 | above usual · 140 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 140 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 43 | 57.5 | 57.9 | below usual · 20 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 20 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 9 | 14.8 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 5 of 195 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 5 of 195 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
Player contributions
GK
M. MüllerGK90'
4 saves
21/30
Pass
-
Duels
4
Saves
DEF
C. CaddenDEF90'
28/36
Pass
20%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
L. MayoDEF90'
44/55
Pass
50%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
D. HappeDEF90'
8 clearances · 4 aerials won
54/61
Pass
67%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
N. Guinness-WalkerDEF74'
27/34
Pass
63%
Duels
4
Tkl+Int
MID
A. AremuMID90'
1 key pass · 5 tackles
45/54
Pass
53%
Duels
1
Key P
L. SmithMID62'
1 key pass
17/20
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Key P
S. ArmstrongMID90'
1 key pass
76/82
Pass
33%
Duels
1
Key P
T. YoganeMID45'
3 interceptions
5/8
Pass
63%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
M. NteloFWD45'
1 key pass
7/10
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Shots
K. NisbetFWD45'
4/6
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Shots
Substitutes
M. KnoesterDEF45'
31/32
Pass
50%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
T. OlusanyaFWD45'
1 key pass
6/7
Pass
17%
Duels
1
Shots
A. MoulouaFWD45'
1 key pass
2/5
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Shots
F. MarshallMID28'
1 big chance created · 2 key passes
7/8
Pass
-
Duels
2
Key P
G. MolloyDEF16'
10/11
Pass
-
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
Context
How this match compares
Across the archive
All recordsWhere this match ranks against every Aberdeen match with data for each metric — coverage varies (shots/possession from 2015-16, xG from 2020-21, most else from 2021-22; see /records for each metric's exact range). Only metrics in the top or bottom 10 are shown.
9%
Long-ball share
7th lowest of 195
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
1.11xGA
2nd of 10 · 2nd best
6high regains
2nd of 10 · 2nd best
50%field tilt
8th of 10 · among the worst
Form:WLLL(last 4)
Home this season: 2-1-2, 1.77–1.53 xG avg
After scoring first: 2-1-0 (3 games)
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
7-0-1(8 games)
1.81–0.68avg xG (n=7)
WWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
9 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.08avg 1.37
5th best of 10 · Highest 3.07, 17 October 2026 (3-1) · Lowest 0.35, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
xGA
1.11avg 1.64
2nd best of 10 · Highest 2.67, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 0.85, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Possession
55%avg 46%
2nd best of 10 · Highest 65%, 11 October 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 31%, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Shots
10.0avg 13.1
5th worst of 10 · Highest 22.0, 11 October 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 9.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Shots on target
2.0avg 3.4
4th worst of 10 · Highest 7.0, 17 October 2026 (3-1) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.8
5th worst of 10 · Highest 4.0, 17 October 2026 (3-1) · Lowest 1.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Box touches
21.0avg 23.7
5th worst of 10 · Highest 44.0, 24 October 2026 (2-3) · Lowest 8.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1)
Final third entries
53.0avg 61.7
4th worst of 10 · Highest 101.0, 11 October 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 35.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Key passes
8.0avg 9.1
4th best of 10 · Highest 15.0, 11 October 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 4.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Corners
6.0avg 5.9
4th best of 10 · Highest 13.0, 11 October 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Tackles
16.0avg 18.6
4th worst of 10 · Highest 31.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 10.0, 24 October 2026 (2-3)
Interceptions
14.0avg 9.8
2nd best of 10 · Highest 15.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
PPDA
9.7avg 15.7
best of 10 · Highest 28.2, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 11.3, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 7%
4th worst of 10 · Highest 12%, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 1%, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
avg
Above avg
Below avg