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Scottish Premiership · Sat, 5 Sept 2026 · Pittodrie
Aberdeen
0–0
FT · Draw
Kilmarnock
1.08xG
-0.02AFC xGD
xG1.11
Expected points 1.57–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
Two points dropped on the chances created.
Kilmarnock generated more attacking volume — 11 shots and 18 box touches to Aberdeen's 10 and 21. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.11 xG per shot to 0.10, and the bigger ones (1–1 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 1.57
From the full xG (1.08–1.11), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.08–1.11). Took 1.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
1.08 – 1.11
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.11 – 0.10
xG per shot
10 – 11
shots
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.65 – 2.33
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
50% – 50%
field tilt
53 – 73
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.11 xGA
chances conceded
0.45 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
18 (base 26)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.10
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-1-3-2 and stayed in it for the whole match. Kilmarnock stayed in 4-1-3-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.84Kilmarnock 0.93GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
30%
34%
35%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Aberdeen Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
10shots · 3 on target · 0.86 xG
By situation
70%
10%
20%
Open play770%
Corner110%
Free kick / throw220%
By body part
40%
40%
20%
Right foot440%
Left foot440%
Head220%
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 10Kilmarnock 11
🟨🟨↔↔🟨🟨↔↔↔🟨
↔🟨↔↔🟨🟨🟨
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 67 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 67 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 6 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | below usual · 53 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 53 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
50.1%
31.3%
18.6%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
36.7%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
30avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
90.9%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
63avg 49
Directness
58.8%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 478 | 376.8 | 392.4 | above usual · 151 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 151 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 80.5 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 166 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 166 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 31 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 137 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 137 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 43 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 19 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 19 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 9 | 14.4 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 5 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 5 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Touches in box | 21 | 21.6 | 18 |
| Possession % | 55 | 48.1 | 45 |
The second half only looks like a revival next to the first. At 0.70 xG it was an ordinary Aberdeen half (0.66 usual); the first, at 0.15 against 0.51, was the outlier.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26 — this season is too short to average yet. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Kilmarnock.
Players
Player contributions
GK
M. MüllerGK90'
4 saves
21/30
Pass
-
Duels
4
Saves
DEF
C. CaddenDEF90'
28/36
Pass
20%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
L. MayoDEF90'
44/55
Pass
50%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
D. HappeDEF90'
8 clearances · 4 aerials won
54/61
Pass
67%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
N. Guinness-WalkerDEF74'
27/34
Pass
63%
Duels
4
Tkl+Int
MID
A. AremuMID90'
1 key pass · 5 tackles
45/54
Pass
53%
Duels
1
Key P
L. SmithMID62'
1 key pass
17/20
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Key P
S. ArmstrongMID90'
1 key pass
76/82
Pass
33%
Duels
1
Key P
T. YoganeMID45'
3 interceptions
5/8
Pass
63%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
M. NteloFWD45'
1 key pass
7/10
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Shots
K. NisbetFWD45'
4/6
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Shots
Substitutes
M. KnoesterDEF45'
31/32
Pass
50%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
T. OlusanyaFWD45'
1 key pass
6/7
Pass
17%
Duels
1
Shots
A. MoulouaFWD45'
1 key pass
2/5
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Shots
F. MarshallMID28'
1 big chance created · 2 key passes
7/8
Pass
-
Duels
2
Key P
G. MolloyDEF16'
10/11
Pass
-
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
7-0-1(8 games)
1.81–0.68avg xG (n=7)
WWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
4 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.08avg 1.10
avg of 4 games · Highest 2.66, 1 August 2026 (2-1) · Lowest 0.35, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
xGA
1.11avg 2.11
avg of 4 games · Highest 2.67, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 1.83, 1 August 2026 (2-1)
Possession
55%avg 46%
avg of 4 games · Highest 53%, 8 August 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 34%, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Shots
10.0avg 9.8
avg of 4 games · Highest 11.0, 1 August 2026 (2-1) · Lowest 9.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Shots on target
2.0avg 2.5
avg of 4 games · Highest 3.0, 1 August 2026 (2-1) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.3
avg of 4 games · Highest 2.0, 1 August 2026 (2-1) · Lowest 1.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Box touches
21.0avg 20.0
avg of 4 games · Highest 25.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 12.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Final third entries
53.0avg 52.8
avg of 4 games · Highest 73.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 35.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Key passes
8.0avg 6.5
avg of 4 games · Highest 8.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 4.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Corners
6.0avg 4.8
avg of 4 games · Highest 6.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 4.0, 1 August 2026 (2-1)
Tackles
16.0avg 19.3
avg of 4 games · Highest 23.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 17.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Interceptions
14.0avg 9.3
avg of 4 games · Highest 15.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
PPDA
9.7avg 15.8
avg of 4 games · Highest 28.2, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 11.3, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 7%
avg of 4 games · Highest 12%, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 5%, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
avg
Above avg
Below avg