Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Heart of Midlothian
2.65xG
+0.83AFC xGD
xG1.83
Expected points 2.29–0.72
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Heart of Midlothian generated more attacking volume — 19 shots and 32 box touches to Aberdeen's 11 and 23. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.24 xG per shot to 0.10, and the bigger ones (2–1 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (2.65–1.83) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.87–1.83.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.72
From the full xG (2.65–1.83), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.59 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.87–1.83). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
2.65 – 1.83
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Heart of Midlothian
AFC xG baseline: 1.02 · non-penalty 1.87–1.83
0.24 – 0.10
xG per shot
11 – 19
shots
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 3 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionGAME STATE
2.88 – 1.40
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Heart of Midlothian
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
55% – 45%
field tilt
61 – 70
final-third entries
Aberdeen had more of the play in Heart of Midlothian's half, but were behind for 61% of the match — from the 35th minute. A side protecting a lead cedes territory by design, so this is the scoreline talking, not control.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
1.83 xGA
chances conceded
0.14 worse than AFC baseline (1.69)
32 (base 28)
Heart of Midlothian box touches
0.10
xG per Heart of Midlothian shot
Heart of Midlothian accessed Aberdeen's box too easily, but most of their shots were low quality.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-2-3-1 and stayed in it for the whole match — the changes were personnel, not shape, despite chasing the game. Heart of Midlothian stayed in 4-2-2-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.32Heart of Midlothian 1.34GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
63%
21%
16%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Aberdeen Shot Map
2 goals: 0 open play, 1 free kick, 1 pen
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Heart of Midlothian Shot Map
1 goal: 0 open play, 1 free kick
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
19 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
11shots · 3 on target · 2.66 xG
By situation
45%
9%
18%
18%
9%
Open play545%
Counter19%
Corner218%
Free kick / throw218%
Penalty19%
By body part
64%
9%
27%
Right foot764%
Left foot19%
Head327%
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 11Heart of Midlothian 19
🟨⚽⚽↔↔↔↔↔🟨
🟥🟨↔↔↔↔🟨⚽
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | SPFL average 80 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 14.4 | about normal · 80 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 80 of 192 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 7 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 | about normal · 76 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 76 of 192 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
44.8%
36.4%
18.8%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.3% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
73.1%avg 60.6%
GK Total Passes
26avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
85.7%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
57avg 49
Directness
61.7%avg 57.8%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 356 | 371.9 | 392 | about normal · 73 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 73 of 192 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 71.6 | 75.7 | 72.2 | about normal · 75 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 75 of 192 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 35 | 26.3 | 25.2 | above usual · 160 of 192 lower |
| above usual · 160 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 63 | 54.6 | 57.8 | about normal · 130 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 130 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 17.7 | 15 | 15.6 | above usual · 141 of 192 lower |
| above usual · 141 of 192 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 2.66 | 0.99 | 1.83 |
| Big chances | 2 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Touches in box | 24 | 19.0 | 34 |
| Possession % | 50 | 45.1 | 50 |
Aberdeen created far more after half time (2.29 xG to 0.37) — but they were chasing by then, against a side content to sit in.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 7 games in 2026-27. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Heart of Midlothian.
Players
Player contributions
GK
M. MüllerGK90'
3 saves
15/26
Pass
-
Duels
3
Saves
DEF
C. CaddenDEF73'
4 tackles
14/23
Pass
75%
Duels
6
Tkl+Int
L. MayoDEF90'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 1 key pass
35/41
Pass
43%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
D. HappeDEF90'
1 key pass · 9 clearances · 6 aerials won
46/56
Pass
78%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
N. Guinness-WalkerDEF83'
29/37
Pass
91%
Duels
4
Tkl+Int
MID
B. LyonsMID90'
4 tackles
40/48
Pass
64%
Duels
-
Key P
A. AfeezMID72'
31/37
Pass
75%
Duels
-
Key P
T. OlusanyaMID90'
1 key pass
6/7
Pass
31%
Duels
1
Key P
C. RonanMID73'
2 key passes
25/32
Pass
0%
Duels
2
Key P
T. YoganeMID73'
3 dribbles won
4/8
Pass
70%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
K. NisbetFWD90'
2 goals · 5 shots · 4 aerials won
9/14
Pass
71%
Duels
5
Shots
Substitutes
S. ArmstrongMID18'
1 key pass
7/8
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Key P
A. BriedlMID17'
4/8
Pass
100%
Duels
-
Key P
L. SmithFWD17'
1 key pass
3/7
Pass
25%
Duels
-
Shots
A. MoulouaFWD17'
2/4
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Shots
G. MolloyDEF16'
2/3
Pass
-
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
Historical Context
How this match compares to the season so far
This match vs season so far
6 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
2.66avg 0.75
best of 7 · Highest 1.08, 5 September 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 0.35, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
xGA
1.83avg 1.67
4th best of 7 · Highest 2.67, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 0.85, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Possession
51%avg 44%
3rd best of 7 · Highest 55%, 5 September 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 31%, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Shots
11.0avg 9.7
best of 7 · Highest 11.0, 15 September 2026 (4-0) · Lowest 9.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Shots on target
3.0avg 2.5
2nd best of 7 · Highest 4.0, 15 September 2026 (4-0) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
2.0avg 1.2
best of 7 · Highest 2.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 1.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2)
Box touches
23.0avg 18.0
2nd best of 7 · Highest 25.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 8.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1)
Final third entries
61.0avg 53.7
2nd best of 7 · Highest 73.0, 8 August 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 35.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Key passes
7.0avg 6.8
4th best of 7 · Highest 8.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 4.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3)
Corners
4.0avg 5.3
3rd worst of 7 · Highest 9.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 2.0, 15 September 2026 (4-0)
Tackles
19.0avg 20.8
4th best of 7 · Highest 31.0, 19 September 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 16.0, 5 September 2026 (0-0)
Interceptions
13.0avg 9.8
3rd best of 7 · Highest 15.0, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 2.0, 30 August 2026 (0-1)
PPDA
12.4avg 16.0
4th best of 7 · Highest 28.2, 2 September 2026 (0-3) · Lowest 9.7, 5 September 2026 (0-0)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
2.66xG
1st of 7 · season best
+0.83xGD
1st of 7 · season best
11shots
1st of 7 · season best
2big chances
1st of 7 · season best
3shots on target
2nd of 7 · 2nd best
23box touches
2nd of 7 · 2nd best
Home this season: 1-1-1, 1.36–1.68 xG avg
After scoring first: 1-1-0 (2 games)
In six seasons
All recordsWhere this match ranks against every Aberdeen match on file since 2021-22. Only metrics in the top or bottom 10 are shown.
0.242
xG per shot
2nd highest of 189