← Prev
Scottish Premiership · Sat, 1 Aug 2026 · Pittodrie
Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Hearts
2.32xG
+0.98AFC xGD
xG1.34
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Hearts generated more attacking volume — 19 shots and 32 box touches to Aberdeen's 11 and 24. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.21 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (2–1 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (2.32–1.34) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.53–1.34.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.73
From the full xG (2.32–1.34), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.53–1.34). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.32Hearts 1.34GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Aberdeen Shot Map
2 goals: 1 open play, 1 pen
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Hearts Shot Map
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
19 shots
The match in three battles
Chance qualityABERDEEN EDGE
2.32 – 1.34
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 1.53–1.34
0.21 – 0.07
xG per shot
11 – 19
shots (AFC – Hearts)
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 3 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
2.88 – 1.40
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
55% – 45%
field tilt
61 – 70
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.34 xGA
chances conceded
0.22 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
32 (base 26)
Hearts box touches
0.07
xG per Hearts shot
Hearts accessed Aberdeen's box too easily, but most of their shots were low quality.
Player contributions
GK
M. MüllerGK90'
3 saves
15/26
Pass
-
Duels
3
Saves
DEF
C. CaddenDEF73'
4 tackles
14/23
Pass
75%
Duels
6
Tkl+Int
L. MayoDEF90'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 1 key pass
35/41
Pass
43%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
D. HappeDEF90'
1 key pass · 9 clearances · 6 aerials won
46/56
Pass
78%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
N. Guinness-WalkerDEF83'
29/37
Pass
91%
Duels
4
Tkl+Int
MID
B. LyonsMID90'
4 tackles
40/48
Pass
64%
Duels
-
Key P
A. AremuMID72'
31/37
Pass
75%
Duels
-
Key P
T. OlusanyaMID90'
1 key pass
6/7
Pass
31%
Duels
1
Key P
C. RonanMID73'
2 key passes
25/32
Pass
0%
Duels
2
Key P
T. YoganeMID73'
3 dribbles won
4/8
Pass
70%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
K. NisbetFWD90'
2 goals · 5 shots · 4 aerials won
9/14
Pass
71%
Duels
5
Shots
Substitutes
S. ArmstrongMID18'
1 key pass
7/8
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Key P
A. BriedlMID17'
4/8
Pass
100%
Duels
-
Key P
L. SmithFWD17'
1 key pass
3/7
Pass
25%
Duels
-
Shots
A. MoulouaFWD17'
2/4
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Shots
G. MolloyDEF16'
2/3
Pass
-
Duels
0
Tkl+Int