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Scottish Premiership · Sun, 17 May 2026 · Away
Dundee FC
3–2
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.99xG
-0.86AFC xGD
xG1.12
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive press
9.3PPDA · 14.3 avg
Aberdeen pressed hard — 9.3 passes allowed per defensive action versus a 14.3 average (lower is more aggressive).
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.24 set-piece xG).
Second best on chances
1.12–1.99xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.99 xG against Aberdeen's 1.12.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?55% luck · mostly luck
About 55% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.29Dundee FC 1.80GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
9 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.99 xG to Aberdeen's 1.12.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.12
1.99
1.19
Shots
9
11
11
Shots on target
2
6
3
Big chances
1
5
2
Box touches
17
20
22
xG per shot
0.12
0.18
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
44%
56%
48%
Field tilt
61%
39%
51%
Progressive passes
—
—
46
Final-third entries
71
54
55
xT (threat created)
—
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 1.99 xGA, above the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 9.3).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.99
1.12
1.56
PPDA
9.3
—
14.3
High regains
—
—
5
Tackles
24
—
16
Interceptions
13
—
9
Opp. box touches
20
17
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WWDWL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)