Aberdeen
3–1
FT · Win
Hibernian
2.19xG
+1.64AFC xGD
xG0.55
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.16 xG per shot to 0.08, and the bigger ones (3–0 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (2.19–0.55) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.62–0.55.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.20
From the full xG (2.19–0.55), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.62–0.55). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.19Hibernian 0.55GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
2.19 – 0.55
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10 · non-penalty 0.62–0.55
0.16 – 0.08
xG per shot
14 – 7
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.16 xG per shot to 0.08.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.90 – 1.57
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
51 – 56
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.55 xGA
chances conceded
0.42 better than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Hibernian box touches
0.08
xG per Hibernian shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3big chances
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
2.19xG
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
+1.64xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:DDDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 8-5-6, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match