Celtic
2–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.31xG
-1.45AFC xGD
xG0.85
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A fair defeat.
Celtic generated more attacking volume — 20 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 4 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.21 xG per shot to 0.12, and the bigger ones (1–3 big chances). The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.85–2.31) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.07–2.31.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.73 – 2.29
From the full xG (0.85–2.31), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.20 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.07–2.31). Took 0.
Little fortune either way.Result and performance broadly matched.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.85Celtic 2.31GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.85 – 2.31
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10 · non-penalty 0.07–2.31
0.21 – 0.12
xG per shot
4 – 20
shots (AFC – Celtic)
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 2 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionEVEN
0.74 – 2.53
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
36 – 84
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
2.31 xGA
chances conceded
1.34 worse than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Celtic box touches
0.12
xG per Celtic shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
-1.46xGD
37th of 38 · among the worst
4shots
37th of 38 · among the worst
25progressive passes
37th of 38 · among the worst
2.31xGA
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WDWLL(last 5)
Away this season: 2-6-11, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match