Livingston
1–2
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.30xG
-0.86AFC xGD
xG0.44
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Fortunate winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Livingston generated more attacking volume — 12 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 11 and —.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.73 – 2.29
From the full xG (0.44–1.30), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.73 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.44–1.30). Took 3.
Extreme fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.44Livingston 1.30GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.44 – 1.30
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10
0.04 – 0.11
xG per shot
11 – 12
shots (AFC – Livingston)
Livingston created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.40 – 2.49
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
66 – 70
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
1.30 xGA
chances conceded
0.33 worse than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Livingston box touches
0.11
xG per Livingston shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:W(last 1)
Away this season: 2-6-11, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match