Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Dundee FC
1.54xG
+0.69AFC xGD
xG0.85
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.08 xG per shot to 0.08, and the bigger ones (1–1 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.54–0.85) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.75–0.85.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 0.73
From the full xG (1.54–0.85), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.75–0.85). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.54Dundee FC 0.85GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
1.54 – 0.85
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10 · non-penalty 0.75–0.85
0.08 – 0.08
xG per shot
19 – 11
shots (AFC – Dundee FC)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.10 – 2.57
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
82 – 56
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
0.85 xGA
chances conceded
0.12 better than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Dundee FC box touches
0.08
xG per Dundee FC shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LWDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 8-5-6, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match