Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Hearts
1.11xG
+0.17AFC xGD
xG0.95
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.11–0.95) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.11–0.16.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 1.58
From the full xG (1.11–0.95), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.11–0.16). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.11Hearts 0.95GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityABERDEEN EDGE
1.11 – 0.95
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10 · non-penalty 1.11–0.16
0.07 – 0.19
xG per shot
17 – 5
shots (AFC – Hearts)
Hearts created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.01 – 1.28
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
72 – 63
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
0.95 xGA
chances conceded
0.02 better than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Hearts box touches
0.19
xG per Hearts shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLLWD(last 5)
Home this season: 8-5-6, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match