Hearts
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.15xG
-0.23AFC xGD
xG0.92
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
Hearts generated more attacking volume — 13 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 7 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.13 xG per shot to 0.09, and the bigger ones (1–1 big chances). The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.92–1.15) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.13–1.15.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 1.58
From the full xG (0.92–1.15), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.73 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.13–1.15). Took 0.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.92Hearts 1.15GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.92 – 1.15
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10 · non-penalty 0.13–1.15
0.13 – 0.09
xG per shot
7 – 13
shots (AFC – Hearts)
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was far as valuable.
Territory & progressionEVEN
0.58 – 2.60
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
41 – 67
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
1.15 xGA
chances conceded
0.18 worse than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Hearts box touches
0.09
xG per Hearts shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
28progressive passes
36th of 38 · among the worst
9high regains
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDDD(last 5)
Away this season: 2-6-11, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match