Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Hibernian
0.24xG
+0.03AFC xGD
xG0.22
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 1.58
From the full xG (0.24–0.22), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.24–0.22). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.24Hibernian 0.22GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
0.24 – 0.22
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.10
0.04 – 0.04
xG per shot
6 – 5
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.53 – 1.66
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.12
—
field tilt
70 – 81
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.22 xGA
chances conceded
0.75 better than AFC baseline (0.97)
—
Hibernian box touches
0.04
xG per Hibernian shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.24xG
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLLLL(last 5)
Home this season: 8-5-6, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match