Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
2.20xG
+1.11AFC xGD
xG1.09
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Kilmarnock generated more attacking volume — 16 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 13 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.17 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (3–0 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.73
From the full xG (2.20–1.09), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.20–1.09). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.20Kilmarnock 1.09GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.20 – 1.09
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24
0.17 – 0.07
xG per shot
13 – 16
shots (AFC – Kilmarnock)
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 2 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.60 – 2.15
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
70 – 67
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.09 xGA
chances conceded
0.55 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Kilmarnock box touches
0.07
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
10high regains
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LWWWW(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match