Dundee United
1–3
FT · Win
Aberdeen
2.02xG
-1.24AFC xGD
xG0.78
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Fortunate winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Dundee United generated more attacking volume — 24 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 9 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.09 xG per shot to 0.08, and the bigger ones (2–3 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (0.78–2.02) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.78–1.23.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.73 – 2.29
From the full xG (0.78–2.02), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.73 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.78–1.23). Took 3.
Extreme fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.78Dundee United 2.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityOPPONENT EDGE
0.78 – 2.02
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 0.78–1.23
0.09 – 0.08
xG per shot
9 – 24
shots (AFC – Dundee United)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.88 – 3.25
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
64 – 87
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
2.02 xGA
chances conceded
0.38 worse than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Dundee United box touches
0.08
xG per Dundee United shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLWLW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-1-13, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match