Aberdeen
4–1
FT · Win
St. Mirren
3.37xG
+2.45AFC xGD
xG0.93
Expected points 2.44–0.20
DominantThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
The late penalty stretched the headline xG (3.37–0.93) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 2.59–0.14.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.20
From the full xG (3.37–0.93), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.44 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.59–0.14). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 3.37St. Mirren 0.93GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
3.37 – 0.93
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 2.59–0.14
0.15 – 0.15
xG per shot
23 – 6
shots (AFC – St. Mirren)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.20 – 1.49
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
67 – 58
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.93 xGA
chances conceded
0.71 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
St. Mirren box touches
0.15
xG per St. Mirren shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
10shots on target
1st of 38 · season best
7big chances
1st of 38 · season best
105progressive passes
1st of 38 · season best
3.37xG
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+2.44xGD
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
23shots
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:L(last 1)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match