Aberdeen
4–1
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
2.33xG
+1.86AFC xGD
xG0.47
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.15 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (4–0 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (2.33–0.47) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.55–0.47.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.20
From the full xG (2.33–0.47), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.55–0.47). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.33Kilmarnock 0.47GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.33 – 0.47
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 1.55–0.47
0.15 – 0.07
xG per shot
16 – 7
shots (AFC – Kilmarnock)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.15 xG per shot to 0.07.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.41 – 1.32
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
51 – 52
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.47 xGA
chances conceded
1.16 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Kilmarnock box touches
0.07
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
11high regains
1st of 38 · season best
8shots on target
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LWWDL(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match