Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Dundee United
1.18xG
+0.86AFC xGD
xG0.32
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.13 xG per shot to 0.05, and the bigger ones (2–1 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.18–0.32) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.39–0.32.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.73
From the full xG (1.18–0.32), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.39–0.32). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.18Dundee United 0.32GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.18 – 0.32
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 0.39–0.32
0.13 – 0.05
xG per shot
9 – 6
shots (AFC – Dundee United)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.13 xG per shot to 0.05.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.35 – 1.48
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
71 – 74
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.32 xGA
chances conceded
1.32 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Dundee United box touches
0.05
xG per Dundee United shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.32xGA
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWLWL(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match