Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Livingston
1.08xG
+0.65AFC xGD
xG0.43
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.09 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (2–0 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 0.73
From the full xG (1.08–0.43), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.08–0.43). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.08Livingston 0.43GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityABERDEEN EDGE
1.08 – 0.43
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24
0.09 – 0.07
xG per shot
12 – 6
shots (AFC – Livingston)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.09 xG per shot to 0.07.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.56 – 1.57
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
55 – 81
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.43 xGA
chances conceded
1.21 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Livingston box touches
0.07
xG per Livingston shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.43xGA
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLLWL(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match