Aberdeen
4–1
FT · Win
Hibernian
1.69xG
+0.18AFC xGD
xG1.50
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Fortunate winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Hibernian generated more attacking volume — 17 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 7 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.24 xG per shot to 0.09, and the bigger ones (4–1 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.69–1.50) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.90–1.50.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 1.58
From the full xG (1.69–1.50), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.73 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.90–1.50). Took 3.
Extreme fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.69Hibernian 1.50GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityOPPONENT EDGE
1.69 – 1.50
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 0.90–1.50
0.24 – 0.09
xG per shot
7 – 17
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 3 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.29 – 2.36
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
44 – 74
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
1.50 xGA
chances conceded
0.13 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Hibernian box touches
0.09
xG per Hibernian shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:WLWWL(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match