Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Hearts
1.74xG
+0.37AFC xGD
xG1.36
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.11 xG per shot to 0.10, and the bigger ones (4–2 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 0.73
From the full xG (1.74–1.36), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.74–1.36). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.73Hearts 1.36GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.74 – 1.36
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24
0.11 – 0.10
xG per shot
16 – 13
shots (AFC – Hearts)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.33 – 1.51
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
50 – 50
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.36 xGA
chances conceded
0.27 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Hearts box touches
0.10
xG per Hearts shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:WDLWL(last 5)
Home this season: 13-2-4, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match