Hibernian
3–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.80xG
-2.14AFC xGD
xG0.66
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
Hibernian generated more attacking volume — 25 shots and — box touches to Aberdeen's 5 and —. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.13 xG per shot to 0.11, and the bigger ones (1–2 big chances). The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.66–2.80) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.66–2.01.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.20 – 2.44
From the full xG (0.66–2.80), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.73 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.66–2.01). Took 0.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.66Hibernian 2.80GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.66 – 2.80
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.24 · non-penalty 0.66–2.01
0.13 – 0.11
xG per shot
5 – 25
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.04 – 5.26
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.68
—
field tilt
38 – 72
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
2.80 xGA
chances conceded
1.17 worse than AFC baseline (1.64)
—
Hibernian box touches
0.11
xG per Hibernian shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WLWWD(last 5)
Away this season: 5-1-13, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match