Hibernian
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.73xG
+2.13AFC xGD
xG3.86
Expected points 0.20–2.44
Unfortunate defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.17 xG per shot to 0.16, and the bigger ones (4–2 big chances). The penalty stretched the headline xG (3.86–1.73) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 3.07–1.73.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.20
From the full xG (3.86–1.73), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (3.07–1.73). Took 0.
Extreme misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 3.86Hibernian 1.73GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
3.86 – 1.73
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.41 · non-penalty 3.07–1.73
0.17 – 0.16
xG per shot
23 – 11
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
4.09 – 2.02
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.17
—
field tilt
78 – 40
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.73 xGA
chances conceded
0.19 worse than AFC baseline (1.55)
0 (base 2)
Hibernian box touches
0.16
xG per Hibernian shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.86xG
1st of 38 · season best
23shots
1st of 38 · season best
+2.13xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:DLWLD(last 5)
Away this season: 5-5-9, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match