Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Hearts
1.74xG
+1.41AFC xGD
xG0.33
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.12 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (2–1 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.73
From the full xG (1.74–0.33), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.74–0.33). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.74Hearts 0.33GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
1.74 – 0.33
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.41
0.12 – 0.07
xG per shot
14 – 5
shots (AFC – Hearts)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.12 xG per shot to 0.07.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.82 – 2.46
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.17
—
field tilt
59 – 56
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.33 xGA
chances conceded
1.21 better than AFC baseline (1.55)
0 (base 2)
Hearts box touches
0.07
xG per Hearts shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.33xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:WLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-7-5, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match