Aberdeen
5–1
FT · Win
Livingston
1.77xG
+0.12AFC xGD
xG1.65
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.77–1.65) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.77–0.86.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.58 – 1.58
From the full xG (1.77–1.65), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.77–0.86). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.77Livingston 1.65GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances: non-penalty xG 1.77 to 0.86.
MetricAFCOppAFC baseline · this season
xG
quality of chances created
1.77✓
1.65
1.41
Shots
total attempts
17✓
9
12
Shots on target
attempts hitting the target
7✓
3
4
Big chances
clear, should-score chances
3
3
2
Box touches
touches in the opponent's box
0
0
2
xG per shot
average chance quality per shot
0.10
0.18
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
MetricAFCOppAFC baseline · this season
Possession
share of the ball
62%✓
38%
49%
Field tilt
share of play in the opponent's half
—
–
—
Progressive passes
passes moving the ball upfield
67
–
49
Final-third entries
moves into the final third
44
48
64
xT (threat created)
danger added by passing moves
2.60
–
2.17
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.65 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 6.9).
MetricAFCOppAFC baseline · this season
xGA
quality of chances conceded — lower is better
1.65✓
1.77
1.55
PPDA
how hard Aberdeen pressed — lower is harder
6.9
–
16.4
High regains
balls won high up the pitch
10
–
6
Tackles
tackles made
16
–
17
Interceptions
opponent passes cut out
12
–
8
Opp. box touches
opponent touches in our box — lower is better
0
0
2
Green tick = the side on top for that metric (higher or lower as appropriate). The last column is Aberdeen’s average for reference — this season once enough games are played, otherwise last season. Dashes are Aberdeen-only measures.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
7shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:DDWWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-7-5, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match