Hibernian
0–4
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.03xG
+1.30AFC xGD
xG2.33
Expected points 0.73–2.29
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Hibernian generated more attacking volume — 16 shots and 30 box touches to Aberdeen's 16 and 22. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.15 xG per shot to 0.06, and the bigger ones (4–1 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.29 – 0.73
From the full xG (2.33–1.03), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.33–1.03). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.33Hibernian 1.03GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.33 – 1.03
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.41
0.15 – 0.06
xG per shot
16 – 16
shots (AFC – Hibernian)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.15 xG per shot to 0.06.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.95
Expected threat created (Aberdeen)
AFC xT baseline: 2.17
—
field tilt
39 – 65
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.03 xGA
chances conceded
0.52 better than AFC baseline (1.55)
30 (base 2)
Hibernian box touches
0.06
xG per Hibernian shot
Hibernian accessed Aberdeen's box too easily, but most of their shots were low quality.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
22box touches
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:WDDWW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-5-9, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match