Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
St. Johnstone
3.34xG
+2.35AFC xGD
xG0.99
Expected points 2.44–0.20
DominantThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.22 xG per shot to 0.08, and the bigger ones (6–2 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (3.34–0.99) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 2.55–0.99.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.20
From the full xG (3.34–0.99), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.44 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.55–0.99). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 3.34St. Johnstone 0.99GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
3.34 – 0.99
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.41 · non-penalty 2.55–0.99
0.22 – 0.08
xG per shot
15 – 12
shots (AFC – St. Johnstone)
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.22 xG per shot to 0.08.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.90
Expected threat created (Aberdeen)
AFC xT baseline: 2.17
—
field tilt
65 – 69
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.99 xGA
chances conceded
0.56 better than AFC baseline (1.55)
0 (base 2)
St. Johnstone box touches
0.08
xG per St. Johnstone shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
6big chances
1st of 38 · season best
3.34xG
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+2.35xGD
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:WWDDW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-7-5, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match