Heart of Midlothian
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.58xG
-0.65AFC xGD
xG0.93
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.93–1.58) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.93–0.79.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.73 – 1.58
From the full xG (0.93–1.58), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.58 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.93–0.79). Took 0.
Significant misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.93Heart of Midlothian 1.58GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
0.93 – 1.58
Expected goals
AFC xG baseline: 1.41 · non-penalty 0.93–0.79
0.06 – 0.11
xG per shot
16 – 15
shots (AFC – Heart of Midlothian)
Heart of Midlothian created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.58 – 2.23
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 2.17
—
field tilt
57 – 68
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.58 xGA
chances conceded
0.03 worse than AFC baseline (1.55)
0 (base 2)
Heart of Midlothian box touches
0.11
xG per Heart of Midlothian shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WWLWD(last 5)
Away this season: 5-5-9, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match