Aberdeen
2–3
FT · Loss
Dundee FC
0.46xG
-3.53AFC xGD
xG3.99
Expected points 0.19–2.44
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A fair defeat.
Dundee FC generated more attacking volume — 23 shots and 37 box touches to Aberdeen's 11 and 20. The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.46–3.99) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.46–3.20.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.19 – 2.44
From the full xG (0.46–3.99), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.19 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.46–3.20). Took 0.
Little fortune either way.Result and performance broadly matched.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.46 – 3.99
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Dundee FC
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 0.46–3.20
0.04 – 0.17
xG per shot
11 – 23
shots
Dundee FC created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionABERDEEN EDGE
1.99 – 2.42
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Dundee FC
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
62% – 38%
field tilt
71 – 53
final-third entries
Aberdeen controlled the territory and pushed play into Dundee FC's half.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
3.99 xGA
chances conceded
2.43 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
37 (base 26)
Dundee FC box touches
0.17
xG per Dundee FC shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-1-4-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Dundee FC stayed in 4-1-4-1 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.46Dundee FC 3.99GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
98%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Dundee FC Shot Map
3 goals: 2 open play, 1 pen
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
23 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Dundee FC 23
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 11 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 79 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 79 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 7 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 75 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 75 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
38.2%
38.7%
23.1%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
72.1%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
43avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
94.6%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
65avg 49
Directness
54.2%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 384 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 95 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 95 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 77.6 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 135 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 135 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 34 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 154 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 154 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 52 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 62 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 62 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 13.5 | 14.4 | 15.6 | about normal · 67 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 67 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Dundee FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.46 | 1.17 | 3.95 |
| Big chances | 2 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Touches in box | 20 | 21.6 | 37 |
| Possession % | 53 | 48.1 | 47 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Dundee FC.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Dundee FC at Home — every meeting on record
4-2-0(6 games)
1.62–0.81avg xG
WWDDWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.46avg 1.21
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
3.99avg 1.49
2nd worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
53%avg 48%
12th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
11.0avg 11.3
16th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
2.0avg 1.7
12th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
20.0avg 21.6
19th worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
71.0avg 55.0
7th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
10.0avg 8.1
11th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
2.0avg 4.8
6th worst of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
13.0avg 15.9
12th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
7.0avg 8.5
19th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
10.0avg 15.3
2nd best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
3%avg 6%
4th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.99xGA
37th of 38 · among the worst
-3.53xGD
37th of 38 · among the worst
0.46xG
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLWLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match