Aberdeen
6–2
FT · Win
Livingston
3.08xG
+1.06AFC xGD
xG2.02
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
10.0T. Keskinen
T. Keskinen ran the show — a 10.0 rating with 2 goals.
Second-half surge
5 goalsafter the break
Aberdeen took over after half-time — 5 of the goals came in the second half.
Clinical finishing
6 from 3.08goals from xG
The finishing ran hot — 6 scored from 3.08 xG worth of chances.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.26 · +0.74
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?42% luck · part luck, part skill
About 42% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 3.08Livingston 2.01GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
17 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 3.08 xG to 2.02, and the bigger ones (5–3 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
3.08
2.02
1.19
Shots
17
7
11
Shots on target
7
4
3
Big chances
5
3
2
Box touches
37
16
22
xG per shot
0.18
0.29
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
61%
39%
48%
Field tilt
52%
48%
51%
Progressive passes
78
—
46
Final-third entries
70
54
55
xT (threat created)
3.31
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.02 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.02
3.08
1.56
PPDA
12.3
—
14.3
High regains
3
—
5
Tackles
14
—
16
Interceptions
7
—
9
Opp. box touches
16
37
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
5big chances
1st of 38 · season best
37box touches
1st of 38 · season best
3.08xG
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
78progressive passes
2nd of 33 · 2nd best
Form:DLLLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)