Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Hibernian
1.93xG
+1.83AFC xGD
xG0.10
Expected points 2.44–0.19
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.11 xG per shot to 0.03, and the bigger ones (2–0 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (1.93–0.10) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 1.14–0.10.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.19
From the full xG (1.93–0.10), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.14–0.10). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
1.93 – 0.10
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 1.14–0.10
0.11 – 0.03
xG per shot
17 – 4
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.11 xG per shot to 0.03.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
2.53 – 0.93
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
54% – 46%
field tilt
52 – 49
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.10 xGA
chances conceded
1.46 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
9 (base 26)
Hibernian box touches
0.03
xG per Hibernian shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-1-2 and stayed in it for the whole match. Hibernian started 3-4-1-2, then 4-4-2 on 17’.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.93Hibernian 0.10GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
91%
9%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Hibernian Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
4 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Hibernian 4
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 17 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | above usual · 150 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 150 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 12 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | above usual · 155 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 155 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
45.6%
32.4%
22.0%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
68.0%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
25avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
89.1%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
50avg 49
Directness
57.2%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 424 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 110 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 110 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 77.1 | 75.4 | 72.2 | about normal · 129 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 129 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 26 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 107 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 107 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 60 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 108 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 108 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 14.2 | 14.4 | 15.6 | about normal · 81 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 81 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.93 | 1.17 | 0.16 |
| Big chances | 2 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Touches in box | 36 | 21.6 | 9 |
| Possession % | 52 | 48.1 | 48 |
Aberdeen's best work came before half time — 1.33 xG to 0.60 after.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Hibernian.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Hibernian at Home — every meeting on record
5-2-4(11 games)
1.37–1.39avg xG (n=9)
LWLDLDWWWLW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.93avg 1.17
7th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
0.10avg 1.60
best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.31, 5 October 2025 (4-0)
Possession
53%avg 48%
12th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
17.0avg 11.1
5th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
5.0avg 3.4
7th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
2.0avg 1.7
12th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
34.0avg 21.2
2nd best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
52.0avg 55.5
16th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
11.0avg 8.1
9th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
3.0avg 4.7
11th worst of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
13.0avg 15.9
12th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
8.0avg 8.5
16th best of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
13.1avg 15.2
12th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
3%avg 6%
3rd worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.10xGA
1st of 38 · season best
34box touches
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+1.83xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match