Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Hibernian
1.93xG
+1.83AFC xGD
xG0.10
Expected points 2.44–0.20
DominantMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.9K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet ran the show — a 8.9 rating with 2 goals.
Chance dominance
1.93–0.10xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances — 1.93 xG to 0.10.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.84 set-piece xG).
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.44 · +0.56
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?49% luck · part luck, part skill
About 49% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.97Hibernian 0.16GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
17 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 1.93 xG to 0.10, and the bigger ones (2–0 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.93
0.10
1.19
Shots
17
4
11
Shots on target
5
1
3
Big chances
2
0
2
Box touches
34
9
22
xG per shot
0.11
0.03
0.11
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
53%
47%
48%
Field tilt
54%
46%
51%
Progressive passes
50
—
46
Final-third entries
52
49
55
xT (threat created)
2.53
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.10 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.10
1.93
1.56
PPDA
14.3
—
14.3
High regains
6
—
5
Tackles
13
—
16
Interceptions
8
—
9
Opp. box touches
9
34
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.10xGA
1st of 38 · season best
34box touches
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+1.83xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)