Dundee United
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.33xG
0.00AFC xGD
xG1.33
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
57%possession · 48% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 57% possession against a 48% season average.
Chances left behind
0 from 1.33goals from xG
Wasteful in front of goal — only 0 taken from 1.33 xG.
Result verdict
Very unfortunate
Took 0 pts · expected 1.58 · -1.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?15% luck · mostly down to skill
About 15% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.33Dundee United 1.33GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
16 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.33 xG to 1.33).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.33
1.33
1.19
Shots
16
15
11
Shots on target
2
5
3
Big chances
1
2
2
Box touches
21
37
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.09
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
57%
43%
48%
Field tilt
46%
54%
51%
Progressive passes
43
—
46
Final-third entries
58
63
55
xT (threat created)
1.47
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.33 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 10.5).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.33
1.33
1.56
PPDA
10.5
—
14.3
High regains
1
—
5
Tackles
15
—
16
Interceptions
7
—
9
Opp. box touches
37
21
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLLD(last 4)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)