Rangers
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.81xG
-0.76AFC xGD
xG1.05
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
7high regains · 5 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 7 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 5.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?51% luck · part luck, part skill
About 51% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.05Rangers 1.81GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
9 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.81 xG to Aberdeen's 1.05.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.05
1.81
1.19
Shots
9
22
11
Shots on target
3
8
3
Big chances
3
4
2
Box touches
19
22
22
xG per shot
0.12
0.08
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
36%
64%
48%
Field tilt
36%
64%
51%
Progressive passes
26
—
46
Final-third entries
32
59
55
xT (threat created)
1.61
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.81 xGA). High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.81
1.05
1.56
PPDA
13.5
—
14.3
High regains
7
—
5
Tackles
23
—
16
Interceptions
7
—
9
Opp. box touches
22
19
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
36%field tilt
38th of 38 · season worst
Form:WLDLL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)