Hearts
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.03xG
+0.38AFC xGD
xG1.40
Expected points 0.72–1.57
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
Hearts generated more attacking volume — 13 shots and 26 box touches to Aberdeen's 11 and 18. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.13 xG per shot to 0.08, and the bigger ones (3–2 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 0.72
From the full xG (1.40–1.03), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.40–1.03). Took 0.
Significant misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityABERDEEN EDGE
1.40 – 1.03
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hearts
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.13 – 0.08
xG per shot
11 – 13
shots
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was far as valuable.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
1.37 – 1.71
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hearts
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
45% – 55%
field tilt
37 – 67
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.03 xGA
chances conceded
0.53 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
26 (base 26)
Hearts box touches
0.08
xG per Hearts shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-2-3-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Hearts stayed in 3-5-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.40Hearts 1.03GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
47%
28%
25%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Hearts Shot Map
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
13 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Hearts 13
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 100 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 100 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 98 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 98 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
55.2%
30.9%
13.9%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
41.9%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
31avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
83.4%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
37avg 49
Directness
61.8%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 380 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 87 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 87 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 73.7 | 75.4 | 72.2 | about normal · 97 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 97 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 16 | 27.2 | 25.2 | below usual · 32 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 32 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 51 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 55 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 55 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 13.4 | 14.4 | 15.6 | about normal · 65 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 65 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.40 | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Touches in box | 18 | 21.6 | 26 |
| Possession % | 52 | 48.1 | 48 |
Aberdeen were a different side after half time — 1.19 xG to 0.21 before it.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Hearts.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At Hearts — every meeting on record
0-2-6(8 games)
0.74–1.83avg xG
LDLLLLLD
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.40avg 1.19
11th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
1.03avg 1.57
14th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
52%avg 48%
14th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
11.0avg 11.3
16th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
1.0avg 3.5
7th worst of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.7
5th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
18.0avg 21.6
13th worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
37.0avg 55.9
5th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
5.0avg 8.2
14th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
3.0avg 4.7
11th worst of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
17.0avg 15.8
13th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
4.0avg 8.6
7th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
13.8avg 15.2
15th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
9th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match