Hearts
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.03xG
+0.38AFC xGD
xG1.40
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Chances left behind
0 from 1.40goals from xG
Wasteful in front of goal — only 0 taken from 1.40 xG.
Result verdict
Very unfortunate
Took 0 pts · expected 1.58 · -1.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?1% luck · mostly down to skill
About 1% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.40Hearts 1.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.40 xG to 1.03).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.40
1.03
1.19
Shots
11
13
11
Shots on target
1
3
3
Big chances
3
2
2
Box touches
18
26
22
xG per shot
0.13
0.08
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
52%
48%
48%
Field tilt
45%
55%
51%
Progressive passes
37
—
46
Final-third entries
37
67
55
xT (threat created)
1.37
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.03 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 11.0).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.03
1.40
1.56
PPDA
11.0
—
14.3
High regains
1
—
5
Tackles
17
—
16
Interceptions
4
—
9
Opp. box touches
26
18
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)