Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
3.76xG
+2.74AFC xGD
xG1.02
Expected points 2.44–0.20
DominantMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
68%possession · 48% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 68% possession against a 48% season average.
Chance dominance
3.76–1.02xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances — 3.76 xG to 1.02.
Moved it forward
90progressive passes · 46 avg
Sharp forward play — 90 progressive passes against a season average of 46.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.44 · +0.56
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?49% luck · part luck, part skill
About 49% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 3.76Kilmarnock 1.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
21 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 3.76 xG to 1.02, and the bigger ones (5–2 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
3.76
1.02
1.19
Shots
21
8
11
Shots on target
8
5
3
Big chances
5
2
2
Box touches
30
14
22
xG per shot
0.18
0.13
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
68%
32%
48%
Field tilt
57%
43%
51%
Progressive passes
90
—
46
Final-third entries
73
60
55
xT (threat created)
2.56
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.02 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 9.7).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.02
3.76
1.56
PPDA
9.7
—
14.3
High regains
3
—
5
Tackles
16
—
16
Interceptions
7
—
9
Opp. box touches
14
30
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.76xG
1st of 38 · season best
+2.74xGD
1st of 38 · season best
21shots
1st of 38 · season best
5big chances
1st of 38 · season best
90progressive passes
1st of 33 · season best
8shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:DWWDW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)