Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
3.76xG
+2.74AFC xGD
xG1.02
Expected points 2.44–0.19
DominantThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.18 xG per shot to 0.13, and the bigger ones (5–2 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (3.76–1.02) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 2.97–1.02.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.19
From the full xG (3.76–1.02), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.44 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.97–1.02). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
3.76 – 1.02
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 2.97–1.02
0.18 – 0.13
xG per shot
21 – 8
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.18 xG per shot to 0.13.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
2.56 – 1.48
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
57% – 43%
field tilt
73 – 60
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.02 xGA
chances conceded
0.54 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
14 (base 26)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.13
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-3 and changed to 4-3-3 on 49’, then 4-4-2 on 75’. Kilmarnock started 5-3-2, then 5-4-1 on 76’.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 3.76Kilmarnock 1.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
93%
5%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Kilmarnock 8
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 21 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | top 10% in 190 matches · 177 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 177 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 16 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 181 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 181 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
43.1%
36.4%
20.5%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
31.6%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
19avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
92.2%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
90avg 49
Directness
56.0%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 539 | 376.8 | 392.4 | top 10% in 190 matches · 173 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 173 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 84 | 75.4 | 72.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 186 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 186 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 48 | 27.2 | 25.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 183 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 183 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 47 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 33 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 33 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 8.7 | 14.4 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 4 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Livingston, Jan 2026 · 4 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 3.53 | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Big chances | 5 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Touches in box | 30 | 21.6 | 14 |
| Possession % | 68 | 48.1 | 32 |
Aberdeen were a different side after half time — 3.42 xG to 0.12 before it.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Kilmarnock.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
6-1-1(8 games)
1.43–0.70avg xG (n=7)
DWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
3.76avg 1.12
best of 38 · Highest 3.08, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
1.02avg 1.57
12th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
68%avg 48%
2nd best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
21.0avg 11.0
best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
8.0avg 3.3
2nd best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
5.0avg 1.6
best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
30.0avg 21.3
7th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
73.0avg 54.9
3rd best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
12.0avg 8.1
7th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
9.0avg 4.6
2nd best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
16.0avg 15.8
16th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
7.0avg 8.5
19th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
10.0avg 15.3
4th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
3%avg 6%
5th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.76xG
1st of 38 · season best
+2.74xGD
1st of 38 · season best
21shots
1st of 38 · season best
5big chances
1st of 38 · season best
90progressive passes
1st of 33 · season best
8shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:DWWDW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match