Kilmarnock
3–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.55xG
-1.53AFC xGD
xG1.01
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
1.01–2.55xG for–against
The opposition created more — 2.55 xG against Aberdeen's 1.01.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?21% luck · mostly down to skill
About 21% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.02Kilmarnock 2.55GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.55 xG to Aberdeen's 1.01.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.01
2.55
1.19
Shots
8
19
11
Shots on target
4
9
3
Big chances
3
4
2
Box touches
19
37
22
xG per shot
0.13
0.13
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
45%
55%
48%
Field tilt
39%
61%
51%
Progressive passes
40
—
46
Final-third entries
47
60
55
xT (threat created)
1.38
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.55 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.55
1.01
1.56
PPDA
13.6
—
14.3
High regains
4
—
5
Tackles
16
—
16
Interceptions
13
—
9
Opp. box touches
37
19
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
39%field tilt
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLLLW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)