Aberdeen
1–1
FT · Draw
Dundee United
1.10xG
+0.31AFC xGD
xG0.80
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
72%possession · 48% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 72% possession against a 48% season average.
Moved it forward
71progressive passes · 46 avg
Sharp forward play — 71 progressive passes against a season average of 46.
Defence locked down
0.80xGA · 1.56 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away — 0.80 xGA against a season average of 1.56.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 1.58 · -0.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?35% luck · part luck, part skill
About 35% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.10Dundee United 0.80GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
13 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.10 xG to 0.80).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.10
0.80
1.19
Shots
13
13
11
Shots on target
6
3
3
Big chances
2
2
2
Box touches
29
21
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.06
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
72%
28%
48%
Field tilt
64%
36%
51%
Progressive passes
71
—
46
Final-third entries
61
56
55
xT (threat created)
2.21
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.80 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.80
1.10
1.56
PPDA
12.1
—
14.3
High regains
2
—
5
Tackles
6
—
16
Interceptions
2
—
9
Opp. box touches
21
29
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
64%field tilt
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
71progressive passes
3rd of 33 · 3rd best
Form:WDWWL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)