Rangers
4–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.61xG
-0.93AFC xGD
xG0.68
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
8high regains · 5 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 8 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 5.
Second best on chances
0.68–1.61xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.61 xG against Aberdeen's 0.68.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?8% luck · mostly down to skill
About 8% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.54Rangers 1.65GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
6 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.61 xG to Aberdeen's 0.68. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.68
1.61
1.19
Shots
6
18
11
Shots on target
1
7
3
Big chances
2
3
2
Box touches
7
34
22
xG per shot
0.11
0.09
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
38%
62%
48%
Field tilt
41%
59%
51%
Progressive passes
25
—
46
Final-third entries
45
59
55
xT (threat created)
1.56
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.61 xGA). High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.61
0.68
1.56
PPDA
16.2
—
14.3
High regains
8
—
5
Tackles
16
—
16
Interceptions
12
—
9
Opp. box touches
34
7
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
7box touches
38th of 38 · season worst
25progressive passes
31st of 33 · among the worst
Form:LDLLD(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)