Dundee United (A) 0–0
Celtic (H) 1–2 →The verdict
Event data: Opta
A defeat that matched the balance of chances.
5–22 shots · 0–4 big chances · 0.39–2.33 NPxG
Watch Highlights
SPFL YouTubeSummary
How the match was decided
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.39 – 2.33
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Heart of Midlothian
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.08 – 0.11
xG per shot
5 – 22
shots
Heart of Midlothian created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.87 – 3.64
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Heart of Midlothian
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
54% – 46%
field tilt
42 – 82
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
2.33 xGA
chances conceded
0.77 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
30 (base 25)
Heart of Midlothian box touches
0.11
xG per Heart of Midlothian shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-1-4-1 and changed to 3-5-2 on 47’. Heart of Midlothian stayed in 4-4-2 throughout.
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.39 | 1.19 | 2.33 |
| Big chances | 0 | 1.8 | 4 |
| Touches in box | 17 | 21.6 | 31 |
| Possession % | 47 | 48.1 | 53 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half this season.
How this is measured
FotMob period stats. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Heart of Midlothian.
Lineups
Shots
Where the chances came from
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.39Heart of Midlothian 2.33GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
11%
87%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Aberdeen shots
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
5 shots
Heart of Midlothian shots
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
22 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
5shots · 0 on target · 0.39 xG
By situation
40%
20%
20%
20%
Open play240%
Counter120%
Corner120%
Free kick / throw120%
By body part
80%
20%
Right foot480%
Left foot120%
How this is measured
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 5Heart of Midlothian 22
0'HTFT
Drag across the chart to pick any window.
How this is measured
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 11 games | 5-year 196 games | SPFL average 132 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5 | 13 | 12.2 | 14.5 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Nov 2023 · 6 of 196 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Nov 2023 · 6 of 196 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 4 | 8.7 | 8 | 10 | below usual · 22 of 196 lower |
| below usual · 22 of 196 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing
How the ball moved
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
46.4%
35.8%
17.8%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.1% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
78.4%avg 60.8%
GK Total Passes
37avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
78.5%avg 86.1%
Progression
Progressive Passes
33avg 50
Directness
62.4%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 11 games | 5-year 196 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 316 | 394.6 | 392.9 | below usual · 44 of 196 lower |
| below usual · 44 of 196 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 64.9 | 75 | 72.3 | below usual · 33 of 196 lower |
| below usual · 33 of 196 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 11 | 30.3 | 25.4 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 10 of 196 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 10 of 196 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 56 | 57.3 | 57.9 | about normal · 91 of 196 lower |
| about normal · 91 of 196 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 17.7 | 14.8 | 15.5 | above usual · 145 of 196 lower |
| above usual · 145 of 196 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
Player contributions
GK
M
D. MitovGK90'
6 saves
17/37
Pass
100%
Duels
6
Saves
DEF
N. DevlinDEF71'
8/15
Pass
60%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
J. MilneDEF90'
5 interceptions · 6 clearances
27/38
Pass
33%
Duels
6
Tkl+Int
M
L. MorrisonDEF90'
3 interceptions · 14 clearances · 8 aerials won
30/45
Pass
57%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
G. MolloyDEF90'
17 clearances · 5 aerials won
25/37
Pass
50%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
MID
S
G. ShinnieMID45'
3 interceptions
8/14
Pass
57%
Duels
-
Key P
T. OlusanyaMID79'
1 key pass
6/10
Pass
31%
Duels
1
Key P
C
L. CameronMID66'
2 key passes
16/24
Pass
50%
Duels
2
Key P
G
D. GeigerMID90'
3 interceptions
24/30
Pass
20%
Duels
-
Key P
K
T. KeskinenMID45'
1 key pass
5/6
Pass
33%
Duels
1
Key P
FWD
K. NisbetFWD90'
9/13
Pass
27%
Duels
2
Shots
Substitutes
F
M. FrameDEF45'
9/10
Pass
40%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
N
S. NilsenMID45'
5 tackles
14/22
Pass
73%
Duels
-
Key P
S. ArmstrongMID24'
8/11
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Key P
L
D. LobbanMID19'
5/7
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Key P
L
M. LazetićFWD11'
1/2
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Shots
Context
How this match compares
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
5shots
38th of 38 · season worst
0.39xG
37th of 38 · among the worst
0shots on target
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WLLLD(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Historical Context
How this match compares to the season so far
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.39avg 1.21
2nd worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
2.33avg 1.54
6th worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
47%avg 48%
19th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
5.0avg 11.4
worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 6.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Shots on target
0.0avg 3.5
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
0.0avg 1.8
7th worst of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
17.0avg 21.4
14th worst of 38 · Highest 35.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
42.0avg 55.8
8th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
4.0avg 8.3
5th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
4.0avg 4.7
17th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
17.0avg 15.8
13th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
20.0avg 8.2
best of 38 · Highest 19.0, 15 February 2026 (0-2) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
10.2avg 15.3
5th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
9%avg 5%
2nd best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg