St. Mirren
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
0.90xG
-0.37AFC xGD
xG0.53
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Deserved defeatResult verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?0% luck · mostly down to skill
About 0% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.59St. Mirren 0.72GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (0.53 xG to 0.90). Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.53
0.90
1.19
Shots
7
11
11
Shots on target
0
4
3
Big chances
0
1
2
Box touches
21
19
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.08
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
43%
57%
48%
Field tilt
47%
53%
51%
Progressive passes
39
—
46
Final-third entries
52
57
55
xT (threat created)
1.81
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.90 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.90
0.53
1.56
PPDA
13.3
—
14.3
High regains
6
—
5
Tackles
18
—
16
Interceptions
14
—
9
Opp. box touches
19
21
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0shots on target
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DLLDL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)