Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Hearts
0.56xG
-1.74AFC xGD
xG2.30
Expected points 0.20–2.44
Fortunate winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.0T. Keskinen
T. Keskinen ran the show — a 8.0 rating with 1 goal.
Second best on chances
0.56–2.30xG for–against
The opposition created more — 2.30 xG against Aberdeen's 0.56.
Goalkeeper stood up
1.57goals prevented
The keeper made the difference — 1.57 xG on target faced, only 0 conceded.
Result verdict
Very fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 0.20 · +2.80
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?3% luck · mostly down to skill
About 3% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.56Hearts 2.30GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
6 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.30 xG to Aberdeen's 0.56. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.56
2.30
1.19
Shots
6
17
11
Shots on target
2
4
3
Big chances
0
5
2
Box touches
14
29
22
xG per shot
0.09
0.14
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
40%
60%
48%
Field tilt
66%
34%
51%
Progressive passes
38
—
46
Final-third entries
54
93
55
xT (threat created)
1.00
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.30 xGA, above the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.30
0.56
1.56
PPDA
12.8
—
14.3
High regains
7
—
5
Tackles
22
—
16
Interceptions
9
—
9
Opp. box touches
29
14
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
66%field tilt
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWLWD(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)