Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Hearts
0.56xG
-1.74AFC xGD
xG2.30
Expected points 0.19–2.44
Fortunate winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Hearts generated more attacking volume — 17 shots and 29 box touches to Aberdeen's 6 and 14.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.19 – 2.44
From the full xG (0.56–2.30), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.19 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.56–2.30). Took 3.
Extreme fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.56 – 2.30
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hearts
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.09 – 0.14
xG per shot
6 – 17
shots
Hearts created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionABERDEEN EDGE
1.00 – 2.56
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hearts
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
66% – 34%
field tilt
54 – 93
final-third entries
Aberdeen controlled the territory and pushed play into Hearts's half.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
2.30 xGA
chances conceded
0.74 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
29 (base 26)
Hearts box touches
0.14
xG per Hearts shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-2-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Hearts stayed in 5-4-1 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.56Hearts 2.30GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
6%
14%
80%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Hearts Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
17 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Hearts 17
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Hearts, Feb 2026 · 14 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Hearts, Feb 2026 · 14 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 4 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | below usual · 21 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 21 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
34.3%
38.7%
27.0%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
90.0%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
30avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
82.7%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
38avg 49
Directness
62.2%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 303 | 376.8 | 392.4 | below usual · 37 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 37 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 71.3 | 75.4 | 72.2 | about normal · 72 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 72 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 23 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 87 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 87 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 47 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 33 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 33 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 15.5 | 14.4 | 15.6 | about normal · 103 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 103 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.58 | 1.17 | 2.30 |
| Big chances | 0 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Touches in box | 14 | 21.6 | 29 |
| Possession % | 40 | 48.1 | 60 |
Aberdeen's best work came before half time — 0.48 xG to 0.09 after.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Hearts.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Hearts at Home — every meeting on record
6-1-0(7 games)
1.58–1.22avg xG
WDWWWWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.56avg 1.21
9th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
2.30avg 1.54
7th worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
40%avg 48%
9th worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
6.0avg 11.4
6th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
2.0avg 3.4
18th worst of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
0.0avg 1.8
7th worst of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Box touches
14.0avg 21.8
6th worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
54.0avg 55.4
18th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
3.0avg 8.3
worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 4.0, 29 October 2025 (1-0)
Corners
6.0avg 4.6
6th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
22.0avg 15.6
5th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
9.0avg 8.5
13th best of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
16.4avg 15.1
10th worst of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 5%
13th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
66%field tilt
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWLWD(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match