Livingston
2–2
FT · Draw
Aberdeen
1.56xG
-0.71AFC xGD
xG0.86
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameResult verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 0.73 · +0.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?75% luck · mostly luck
About 75% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.70Livingston 1.63GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.56 xG to Aberdeen's 0.86.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.86
1.56
1.19
Shots
7
16
11
Shots on target
2
5
3
Big chances
0
1
2
Box touches
21
28
22
xG per shot
0.12
0.10
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
50%
50%
48%
Field tilt
59%
41%
51%
Progressive passes
—
—
46
Final-third entries
72
45
55
xT (threat created)
—
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.56 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 10.4).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.56
0.86
1.56
PPDA
10.4
—
14.3
High regains
—
—
5
Tackles
14
—
16
Interceptions
13
—
9
Opp. box touches
28
21
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:DLLWW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)