Aberdeen
4–0
FT · Win
Dundee FC
2.80xG
+2.49AFC xGD
xG0.31
Expected points 2.44–0.19
DominantThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.14 xG per shot to 0.04, and the bigger ones (4–0 big chances). The late penalty stretched the headline xG (2.80–0.31) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 2.01–0.31.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.19
From the full xG (2.80–0.31), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.44 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.01–0.31). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.80 – 0.31
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Dundee FC
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 2.01–0.31
0.14 – 0.04
xG per shot
20 – 8
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.14 xG per shot to 0.04.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
2.76 – 0.55
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Dundee FC
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
40% – 61%
field tilt
57 – 36
final-third entries
Dundee FC had the better of the territorial battle.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.31 xGA
chances conceded
1.25 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
8 (base 26)
Dundee FC box touches
0.04
xG per Dundee FC shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-2-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Dundee FC started 4-4-2, then 3-4-1-2 on 48’.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.80Dundee FC 0.31GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
93%
6%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Dundee FC Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Dundee FC 8
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 20 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | above usual · 169 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 169 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 14 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 174 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 174 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
60.5%
25.7%
13.8%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
30.8%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
39avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
94.5%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
53avg 49
Directness
56.0%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 573 | 376.8 | 392.4 | top 10% in 190 matches · 181 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 181 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 86.4 | 75.4 | 72.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 189 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 189 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 30 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 130 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 130 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 58 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 94 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 94 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 10.1 | 14.4 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 13 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 13 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Dundee FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 2.80 | 1.17 | 0.31 |
| Big chances | 4 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Touches in box | 33 | 21.6 | 8 |
| Possession % | 63 | 48.1 | 37 |
Aberdeen's best work came before half time — 2.42 xG to 0.38 after.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Dundee FC.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Dundee FC at Home — every meeting on record
3-2-1(6 games)
1.23–1.42avg xG
LWDDWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
2.80avg 1.15
3rd best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
0.31avg 1.59
2nd best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
63%avg 48%
4th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
20.0avg 11.0
3rd best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
9.0avg 3.2
best of 38 · Highest 8.0, 3 December 2025 (3-3) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
4.0avg 1.7
3rd best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
33.0avg 21.2
4th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
57.0avg 55.4
18th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
15.0avg 8.0
best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
11.0avg 4.5
best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
19.0avg 15.7
7th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
10.0avg 8.5
12th best of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
11.2avg 15.2
8th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
13th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
9shots on target
1st of 38 · season best
0.31xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+2.49xGD
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
9high regains
2nd of 33 · 2nd best
2.80xG
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
20shots
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match