Aberdeen
4–0
FT · Win
Dundee FC
2.80xG
+2.49AFC xGD
xG0.31
Expected points 2.44–0.20
DominantMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
9.4J. Karlsson
J. Karlsson ran the show — a 9.4 rating with 2 goals.
Fast start
3 goals22'–33'
Aberdeen put the game to bed early — 3 goals between the 22th and 33th minute.
Chance dominance
2.80–0.31xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances — 2.80 xG to 0.31.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.44 · +0.56
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?3% luck · mostly down to skill
About 3% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.80Dundee FC 0.31GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
20 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 2.80 xG to 0.31, and the bigger ones (4–0 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.80
0.31
1.19
Shots
20
8
11
Shots on target
9
2
3
Big chances
4
0
2
Box touches
33
8
22
xG per shot
0.14
0.04
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
63%
37%
48%
Field tilt
40%
61%
51%
Progressive passes
53
—
46
Final-third entries
57
36
55
xT (threat created)
2.76
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.31 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 10.4).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.31
2.80
1.56
PPDA
10.4
—
14.3
High regains
9
—
5
Tackles
19
—
16
Interceptions
10
—
9
Opp. box touches
8
33
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
9shots on target
1st of 38 · season best
0.31xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+2.49xGD
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
9high regains
2nd of 33 · 2nd best
2.80xG
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
20shots
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)