Aberdeen
1–2
FT · Loss
Hibernian
1.24xG
-1.96AFC xGD
xG3.20
Expected points 0.19–2.44
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A fair defeat.
Hibernian generated more attacking volume — 19 shots and 28 box touches to Aberdeen's 16 and 21.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.19 – 2.44
From the full xG (1.24–3.20), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.19 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.24–3.20). Took 0.
Little fortune either way.Result and performance broadly matched.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
1.24 – 3.20
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.08 – 0.17
xG per shot
16 – 19
shots
Hibernian created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
1.93 – 1.42
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
45% – 55%
field tilt
49 – 66
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
3.20 xGA
chances conceded
1.64 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
28 (base 26)
Hibernian box touches
0.17
xG per Hibernian shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-3 and stayed in it for the whole match. Hibernian stayed in 3-4-1-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.24Hibernian 3.20GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
7%
12%
81%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Hibernian Shot Map
2 goals: 2 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
19 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Hibernian 19
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 17 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | above usual · 150 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 150 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 98 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 98 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
55.2%
28.4%
16.4%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
67.7%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
31avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
90.1%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
44avg 49
Directness
57.4%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 482 | 376.8 | 392.4 | above usual · 152 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 152 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 82.2 | 75.4 | 72.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 177 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 177 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 20 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 60 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 60 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 50 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 50 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 50 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 10.4 | 14.4 | 15.6 | below usual · 20 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 20 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.24 | 1.17 | 2.43 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1.8 | 7 |
| Touches in box | 21 | 21.6 | 28 |
| Possession % | 54 | 48.1 | 46 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Hibernian.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Hibernian at Home — every meeting on record
6-2-3(11 games)
1.44–1.04avg xG (n=9)
WWLDLDWWWLW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.24avg 1.19
14th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
3.20avg 1.52
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
54%avg 48%
10th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
16.0avg 11.1
7th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
5.0avg 3.4
7th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.7
5th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
21.0avg 21.6
16th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
49.0avg 55.6
14th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
10.0avg 8.1
11th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
6.0avg 4.6
6th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
11.0avg 15.9
7th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
5.0avg 8.6
10th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
12.0avg 15.2
9th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
16th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.20xGA
36th of 38 · among the worst
-1.96xGD
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DLLWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match