Aberdeen
1–2
FT · Loss
Hibernian
1.24xG
-1.96AFC xGD
xG3.20
Expected points 0.20–2.44
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
1.24–3.20xG for–against
The opposition created more — 3.20 xG against Aberdeen's 1.24.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?18% luck · mostly down to skill
About 18% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.27Hibernian 2.12GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
16 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 3.20 xG to Aberdeen's 1.24.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.24
3.20
1.19
Shots
16
19
11
Shots on target
5
7
3
Big chances
3
7
2
Box touches
21
28
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.17
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
54%
46%
48%
Field tilt
45%
55%
51%
Progressive passes
44
—
46
Final-third entries
49
66
55
xT (threat created)
1.93
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 3.20 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
3.20
1.24
1.56
PPDA
14.6
—
14.3
High regains
6
—
5
Tackles
11
—
16
Interceptions
5
—
9
Opp. box touches
28
21
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.20xGA
36th of 38 · among the worst
-1.96xGD
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DLLWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)