St Mirren (A) 1–0
Kilmarnock (A) 1–0 →The verdict
Event data: Opta
A defeat that matched the balance of chances.
16–19 shots · 3–7 big chances · 1.24–3.20 NPxG
Watch Highlights
SPFL YouTubeSummary
How the match was decided
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
1.24 – 3.20
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.08 – 0.17
xG per shot
16 – 19
shots
Hibernian created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
1.93 – 1.42
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
45% – 55%
field tilt
49 – 66
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
3.20 xGA
chances conceded
1.64 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
27 (base 25)
Hibernian box touches
0.17
xG per Hibernian shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-3 and stayed in it for the whole match. Hibernian stayed in 3-4-1-2 throughout.
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Hibernian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.24 | 1.19 | 3.20 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1.8 | 7 |
| Touches in box | 21 | 21.6 | 28 |
| Possession % | 54 | 48.1 | 46 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half this season.
How this is measured
FotMob period stats. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Hibernian.
Lineups
Shots
Where the chances came from
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.24Hibernian 3.20GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
7%
12%
81%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Aberdeen shots
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
16 shots
Hibernian shots
2 goals: 2 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
19 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
16shots · 5 on target · 1.15 xG
By situation
88%
Open play1488%
Corner16%
Free kick / throw16%
By body part
63%
38%
Right foot1063%
Left foot638%
How this is measured
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 16Hibernian 19
0'HTFT
Drag across the chart to pick any window.
How this is measured
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | SPFL average 116 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 17 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 14.4 | above usual · 152 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 152 of 195 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 8.3 | 8 | 9.9 | about normal · 100 of 195 lower |
| about normal · 100 of 195 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing
How the ball moved
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
55.2%
28.4%
16.4%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.1% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
67.7%avg 60.7%
GK Total Passes
31avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
90.1%avg 86.1%
Progression
Progressive Passes
44avg 50
Directness
57.4%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 482 | 396.2 | 393 | above usual · 155 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 155 of 195 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 82.2 | 75.5 | 72.3 | top 10% in 195 matches · 182 of 195 lower |
| top 10% in 195 matches · 182 of 195 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 20 | 30.8 | 25.4 | about normal · 60 of 195 lower |
| about normal · 60 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 50 | 57.5 | 57.9 | below usual · 51 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 51 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 10.4 | 14.8 | 15.6 | below usual · 20 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 20 of 195 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
Player contributions
GK
M
D. MitovGK90'
2 saves
16/31
Pass
100%
Duels
2
Saves
DEF
D
N. DevlinDEF90'
31/37
Pass
0%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
J. MilneDEF90'
8 clearances
42/48
Pass
38%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
M. KnoesterDEF90'
61/67
Pass
50%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
MID
J
A. JensenMID45'
1 key pass
16/18
Pass
0%
Duels
1
Key P
P
A. PalaversaMID45'
24/28
Pass
29%
Duels
-
Key P
S. ArmstrongMID90'
2 key passes · 4 tackles
53/60
Pass
46%
Duels
2
Key P
G. MolloyMID62'
17/22
Pass
60%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
A
A. AouchicheFWD45'
1 key pass · 3 shots
15/17
Pass
40%
Duels
3
Shots
K. NisbetFWD56'
1 big chance created · 2 key passes
8/12
Pass
20%
Duels
-
Shots
K
J. KarlssonFWD90'
1 big chance created · 2 key passes · 5 dribbles won
44/55
Pass
62%
Duels
2
Shots
Substitutes
D
A. DorringtonDEF45'
19/22
Pass
0%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
M
N. MilanovićFWD45'
3 shots
14/19
Pass
20%
Duels
3
Shots
C
L. ClarksonMID45'
39/43
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Key P
L
M. LazetićFWD34'
1 goal · 3 shots
4/5
Pass
17%
Duels
3
Shots
K
T. KeskinenFWD28'
2 key passes · 3 interceptions
9/11
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Shots
Context
How this match compares
Across the archive
All recordsWhere this match ranks against every Aberdeen match with data for each metric — coverage varies (shots/possession from 2015-16, xG from 2020-21, most else from 2021-22; see /records for each metric's exact range). Only metrics in the top or bottom 10 are shown.
7
Big chances conceded
8th highest of 195 · tied with 4
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.20xGA
36th of 38 · among the worst
-1.96xGD
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DLLWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Hibernian at Home — every meeting on record
6-2-3(11 games)
1.44–1.04avg xG (n=9)
WWLDLDWWWLW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.24avg 1.19
14th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
3.20avg 1.52
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
54%avg 48%
10th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
16.0avg 11.1
7th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
5.0avg 3.4
7th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.7
5th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
22.0avg 21.3
15th best of 38 · Highest 35.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
49.0avg 55.6
14th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
10.0avg 8.1
11th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
6.0avg 4.6
6th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
11.0avg 15.9
7th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
5.0avg 8.6
10th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
12.0avg 15.2
9th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
16th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg