Aberdeen
1–1
FT · Draw
Motherwell
0.80xG
+0.12AFC xGD
xG0.68
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.8J. Karlsson
J. Karlsson ran the show — a 7.8 rating with 1 goal.
Defence locked down
0.68xGA · 1.56 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away — 0.68 xGA against a season average of 1.56.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 1.58 · -0.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?43% luck · part luck, part skill
About 43% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.80Motherwell 0.68GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
6 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (0.80 xG to 0.68).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.80
0.68
1.19
Shots
6
10
11
Shots on target
2
3
3
Big chances
1
0
2
Box touches
11
25
22
xG per shot
0.13
0.07
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
35%
65%
48%
Field tilt
48%
52%
51%
Progressive passes
36
—
46
Final-third entries
34
70
55
xT (threat created)
1.02
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.68 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.68
0.80
1.56
PPDA
15.3
—
14.3
High regains
3
—
5
Tackles
27
—
16
Interceptions
3
—
9
Opp. box touches
25
11
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LWWLW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)