Aberdeen
1–2
FT · Loss
Celtic
1.42xG
-0.48AFC xGD
xG1.90
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
8high regains · 5 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 8 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 5.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (1.00 set-piece xG).
Standout performer
7.6L. Cameron
L. Cameron ran the show — a 7.6 rating.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?20% luck · mostly down to skill
About 20% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.42Celtic 1.85GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.42 xG to 1.90).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.42
1.90
1.19
Shots
8
18
11
Shots on target
2
4
3
Big chances
2
3
2
Box touches
23
41
22
xG per shot
0.18
0.11
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
38%
62%
48%
Field tilt
47%
53%
51%
Progressive passes
54
—
46
Final-third entries
65
69
55
xT (threat created)
2.29
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 1.90 xGA, above the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.90
1.42
1.56
PPDA
24.6
—
14.3
High regains
8
—
5
Tackles
10
—
16
Interceptions
14
—
9
Opp. box touches
41
23
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLLDL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)