Hibernian
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.65xG
-1.07AFC xGD
xG0.57
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
0.57–1.65xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.65 xG against Aberdeen's 0.57.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?20% luck · mostly down to skill
About 20% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.57Hibernian 1.65GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.65 xG to Aberdeen's 0.57. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.57
1.65
1.19
Shots
8
20
11
Shots on target
2
5
3
Big chances
1
2
2
Box touches
20
36
22
xG per shot
0.07
0.08
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
42%
58%
48%
Field tilt
47%
53%
51%
Progressive passes
45
—
46
Final-third entries
43
77
55
xT (threat created)
1.17
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.65 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.65
0.57
1.56
PPDA
15.8
—
14.3
High regains
1
—
5
Tackles
10
—
16
Interceptions
11
—
9
Opp. box touches
36
20
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:DWWLD(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)