Aberdeen
0–2
FT · Loss
Celtic
0.55xG
-0.62AFC xGD
xG1.17
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Deserved defeatResult verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?39% luck · part luck, part skill
About 39% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.55Celtic 1.17GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
6 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.17 xG to Aberdeen's 0.55. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.55
1.17
1.19
Shots
6
13
11
Shots on target
2
4
3
Big chances
1
3
2
Box touches
10
23
22
xG per shot
0.09
0.09
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
29%
71%
48%
Field tilt
40%
60%
51%
Progressive passes
17
—
46
Final-third entries
33
70
55
xT (threat created)
0.71
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.17 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.17
0.55
1.56
PPDA
29.7
—
14.3
High regains
1
—
5
Tackles
12
—
16
Interceptions
8
—
9
Opp. box touches
23
10
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
17progressive passes
33rd of 33 · season worst
10box touches
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:L(last 1)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)